NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	6.6 [512]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +23.8%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	2.7 [719]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -8.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	9	61%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	19	47%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Andre Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	6	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.04	-0.06	0.06	17	59%	-0.01	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.07	0.17	-0.00	10	73%	0.29	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.00	20	63%	0.27	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	17	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	38%	-0.02	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	3.4	29.4	19.4	28.5	3.6	31.3	141.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.6%

SAS +11.6%

SAS +12.6%

DEN -9.6%

DEN -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	16.2	15.6	98.9	113.3	104.4
season	14.4	16.3		103.5	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		99.4	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	14.3	15.8	18.6	15.5
SAS	14.4	17.8	15.5	17.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	10	8	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.02	1	-12	13	18.7	15.1	3.63	13.5	16.5	-2.95
Greg Buckner	13	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-12	13	15.6	15.4	0.17	18.4	15.8	2.57
DerMarr Johnson	14	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-10	9	19.5	14.7	4.76	14.5	16.4	-1.95
Voshon Lenard	69	67	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-8	5	14.6	18.0	-3.32	15.9	16.9	-0.97
Eduardo Najera	40	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-8	5	17.1	14.2	2.93	16.2	16.2	-0.06
Nene	6	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-5	-1	16.5	15.4	1.10	10.8	16.5	-5.71
Andre Miller	73	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-8	5	15.5	15.4	0.12	17.0	12.8	4.22
Kenyon Martin	57	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-7	3	16.1	14.5	1.58	16.7	15.3	1.37
Earl Boykins	48	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-1	-9	15.7	15.2	0.59	15.9	16.5	-0.59
Carmelo Anthony	68	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	3	-17	14.3	18.7	-4.33	15.9	16.9	-0.97
Marcus Camby	62	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.18	-13	2	-15	14.2	18.1	-3.91	16.2	16.2	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	50	52	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.10	24	-13	37	15.1	17.5	-2.36	17.0	13.5	3.53
Tim Duncan	71	73	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.20	12	-1	13	16.1	16.4	-0.29	15.5	15.2	0.32
Tony Parker	64	67	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-1	13	16.0	16.5	-0.49	14.9	16.9	-1.99
Robert Horry	44	47	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.16	21	-10	31	15.3	17.0	-1.70	17.3	13.6	3.66
Nazr Mohammed	17	16	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.20	4	7	-3	16.8	16.1	0.71	16.0	15.4	0.64
Manu Ginobili	55	52	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	12	-13	17.7	13.9	3.82	14.7	16.4	-1.65
Brent Barry	35	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	-1	13	13.9	17.7	-3.82	16.4	14.7	1.65
Nick Van Exel	26	25	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	12	-13	16.5	16.0	0.49	16.9	14.9	1.99
Fabricio Oberto	27	25	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	15	-19	16.7	16.0	0.79	15.3	15.5	-0.20
Rasho Nesterovic	21	23	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	22	-33	17.0	15.9	1.12	11.4	16.8	-5.43
Bruce Bowen	40	40	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.08	-13	24	-37	17.5	15.1	2.36	13.5	17.0	-3.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.7,0.76,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, BOS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
BOS 101, ORL 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.53,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.0%
PHX 99, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	92.8%