NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	7.6 [322]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +20.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	119		Comeback	3.5 [153]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -9.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.00	14	75%	0.24	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.10	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.1	0.11	-0.01	-0.00	19	57%	0.15	1	-0.04	15	80%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	9	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.02	10	62%	0.16	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.04	0.02	8	81%	0.12	2	-0.08	5	60%	-0.05
Max Strus	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.11	0.01	14	69%	0.29	3	-0.09	7	57%	-0.03
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.00	10	70%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	-0.00	12	55%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	4	83%	0.19	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.02	10	68%	0.16	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	8	69%	0.12	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.02	-0.04	4	64%	0.06	2	-0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Jake Layman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	13	46%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	26.5	14.8	29.8	1.8	34.1	136.7
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +20.8%

MIN +6.9%

MIN +31.3%

MIA -5.1%

MIA -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.7	14.4	112.1	121.4	111.3
season	14.6	14.1		109.3	108.7
opponent	14.0	14.9		113.9	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.4	17.7	13.5	14.0	14.6
MIN	15.5	13.7	15.3	14.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	42	40	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-13	18	15.8	13.6	2.20	15.9	13.8	2.03
Precious Achiuwa	34	34	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.13	-2	-6	4	13.6	15.1	-1.53	12.4	15.9	-3.46
Max Strus	16	17	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.05	3	-11	14	13.2	14.8	-1.64	14.5	14.7	-0.17
Jimmy Butler	80	80	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-12	16	14.5	14.8	-0.34	14.5	15.3	-0.74
Nemanja Bjelica	14	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-2	-4	14.8	14.5	0.26	11.1	15.2	-4.15
Goran Dragic	51	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-4	0	12.9	16.3	-3.43	13.9	15.5	-1.54
Duncan Robinson	64	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.29	0	-8	8	15.0	13.8	1.14	15.3	13.4	1.89
Trevor Ariza	73	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-7	6	15.1	13.1	1.97	15.3	13.0	2.28
Gabe Vincent	8	8	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	0	-8	14.2	14.6	-0.34	15.7	14.6	1.17
Bam Adebayo	64	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.39	-6	-2	-4	15.3	13.3	1.98	16.4	11.7	4.62
Tyler Herro	49	50	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.03	-25	17	-42	14.2	14.9	-0.64	13.2	16.2	-2.97

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Edwards	59	60	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.26	19	-11	30	15.3	13.7	1.67	15.5	13.2	2.29
Juancho Hernangomez	48	47	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.10	19	-11	30	13.7	15.6	-1.89	14.7	14.4	0.30
Jarred Vanderbilt	46	47	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-3	14	13.7	15.6	-1.88	14.4	14.7	-0.27
Karl-Anthony Towns	48	51	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.35	1	7	-6	16.2	13.2	3.01	15.2	13.9	1.30
Jordan McLaughlin	34	34	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	-4	16	14.2	14.9	-0.72	13.7	15.0	-1.26
Ricky Rubio	64	65	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	12	-16	14.9	14.2	0.72	15.0	13.7	1.26
Naz Reid	48	47	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	1	6	13.7	15.6	-1.85	14.1	15.0	-0.87
Josh Okogie	49	50	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	12	-16	15.4	13.9	1.55	15.4	13.7	1.73
Jake Layman	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	11	-14	16.0	14.5	1.46	13.6	14.7	-1.11
Jaden McDaniels	32	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	17	-26	15.8	14.1	1.64	13.9	14.9	-1.02
D'Angelo Russell	53	53	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	17	-26	13.5	16.0	-2.49	13.1	16.2	-3.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.53,0.68,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, DAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.9,0.85,1,1	92.8%
ORL 100, GSW 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.42,0.53,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%
OKC 94, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.3%