NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	94		Excitement	7.8 [313]		MVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): +33.1%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	2.4 [402]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -24.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raymond Felton	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.11	-0.00	10	60%	0.15	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	20	67%	0.23	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Alex Abrines	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Steven Adams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	-0.02	-0.06	10	41%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	14	43%	-0.00	4	-0.12	2	0%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	-0.24	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24	-0.19	-0.08	-0.03	22	28%	-0.18	3	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.16	0.16	-0.00	10	100%	0.40	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	9	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	52%	0.04	1	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.06	-0.01	17	44%	0.08	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	16	47%	0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	10	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.6	32.8	15.6	24.1	2.7	32.2	137.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.8%

DEN +14.3%

DEN +9.7%

DEN +0.7%

OKC -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	14.7	100.0	109.7	107.5
season	14.2	14.7		109.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	15.3		109.9	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.8	14.4	15.1	15.9	15.3
DEN	15.5	13.8	17.6	15.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Abrines	22	21	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.11	-1	-7	6	15.0	15.4	-0.41	18.6	14.7	3.92
Patrick Patterson	27	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-3	-2	15.1	15.3	-0.22	15.0	15.7	-0.74
Jerami Grant	40	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-3	-2	14.8	15.6	-0.72	16.1	15.2	0.86
Andre Roberson	66	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-10	12	15.7	14.2	1.50	15.3	16.1	-0.74
Raymond Felton	41	38	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	1	-10	14.7	15.7	-0.95	15.3	15.7	-0.33
Steven Adams	57	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-6	4	15.6	14.7	0.88	15.8	15.1	0.75
Carmelo Anthony	64	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	15.3	15.2	0.05	15.2	16.3	-1.12
Russell Westbrook	68	68	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	1	-10	15.5	14.5	1.01	15.1	16.6	-1.51
Paul George	85	84	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	-1	-6	15.0	17.4	-2.41	15.4	17.2	-1.87

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	59	60	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.12	20	-12	32	14.7	17.1	-2.40	15.8	14.3	1.57
Emmanuel Mudiay	59	59	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.18	17	-9	26	14.6	17.1	-2.44	15.5	14.8	0.70
Paul Millsap	78	78	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	5	-2	15.5	15.5	0.01	15.4	14.5	0.92
Gary Harris	67	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	9	-10	15.9	14.6	1.28	15.9	13.6	2.28
Mason Plumlee	48	46	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	4	0	15.9	15.2	0.65	15.6	15.0	0.63
Nikola Jokic	54	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.10	5	3	2	15.6	15.4	0.26	14.2	16.9	-2.64
Wilson Chandler	51	53	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	7	-6	16.0	15.0	0.98	14.9	15.7	-0.78
Malik Beasley	15	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	8	-8	14.5	15.7	-1.28	13.4	15.6	-2.24
Jamal Murray	34	35	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	17	-26	17.1	14.6	2.44	14.8	15.5	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 101, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	93.0%
IND 91, DAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.9,0.85,1,1	92.8%
MIA 89, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.84,1	92.4%