NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	125		Excitement	10.3 [48]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +78.1%
Miami Heat	122		Comeback	19.2 [84]		LVP	Precious Achiuwa (MIA): -11.7%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Enes Kanter	0.47	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.27,0.47	0.11	0.36	0.00	11	75%	0.53	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.37	-0.01	0.37	-0.01	8	35%	0.37	0	0.00	1	100%	0.04
Robert Covington	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.35,0.35	0.09	0.26	0.00	5	83%	0.35	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.33	0.00	0.31	-0.02	19	48%	0.39	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.09
Anfernee Simons	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.00	6	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nassir Little	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.07	-0.00	14	62%	0.08	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
CJ McCollum	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,-0.04	0.16	-0.19	0.02	25	67%	0.07	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.78	0.78	0.21	0.59	0.01	16	83%	0.83	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.14	-0.00	19	66%	0.34	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.18	0.11	0.03	13	79%	0.26	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.02	0.01	6	100%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.06	-0.01	1	150%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	10	40%	0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.6	28.4	15.5	26.9	0.3	37.0	136.3
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -47.6%

POR +69.8%

POR +25.5%

MIA -0.3%

POR +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	13.8	14.4	130.2	125.8	111.3
season	14.9	14.6		116.9	109.3
opponent	14.9	14.2		110.4	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.3	16.9	15.4	16.7	16.1
MIA	13.5	12.6	14.6	14.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	79	81	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.53	10	-7	17	15.6	18.0	-2.37	13.5	15.4	-1.88
Enes Kanter	66	68	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.04	21	-18	39	15.6	17.0	-1.33	14.4	12.5	1.88
Carmelo Anthony	65	66	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.40	6	-3	9	15.9	16.4	-0.54	13.9	13.6	0.33
CJ McCollum	75	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	-2	7	16.2	15.5	0.74	13.8	13.8	0.04
Derrick Jones Jr.	48	48	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	-2	7	15.3	16.8	-1.44	14.0	13.6	0.35
Robert Covington	68	69	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.51	-14	17	-31	17.2	13.2	4.06	12.9	15.9	-2.99
Anfernee Simons	40	39	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.24	-7	10	-17	16.1	16.0	0.04	14.1	13.6	0.54
Nassir Little	39	39	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	-0.06	-11	14	-25	16.4	15.8	0.56	14.3	13.5	0.76

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Max Strus	44	42	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.12	7	-10	17	13.4	14.1	-0.72	16.1	16.0	0.12
Andre Iguodala	35	34	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.14	11	-14	25	13.1	14.2	-1.17	16.2	16.0	0.24
Bam Adebayo	67	64	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.31	11	-14	25	12.9	15.8	-2.89	16.7	14.8	1.86
Gabe Vincent	54	56	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.16	-6	3	-9	14.6	12.7	1.90	16.0	16.1	-0.17
Precious Achiuwa	26	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	6	-15	15.2	13.3	1.84	15.2	16.4	-1.23
Kendrick Nunn	70	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.55	4	-7	11	13.1	15.7	-2.58	16.2	15.8	0.42
Tyler Herro	70	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	1	-5	13.9	13.6	0.24	16.0	16.2	-0.24
Duncan Robinson	52	54	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	3	-9	14.3	13.2	1.17	15.8	16.3	-0.50
Trevor Ariza	67	66	-1.14	0.64	-1.79	-0.47	-23	20	-43	14.4	12.5	1.94	15.9	16.4	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.89,0.73,0.62,0.64,0.77,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 85, OKC 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.74,0.84,0.66,0.47,0.63,0.57,0.53,0	92.2%
PHX 104, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.71,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.42,0	91.2%
CHI 93, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.16,0	90.8%