NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	8.3 [217]		MVP	Nate Robinson (CHI): +39.8%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	7.3 [39]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -23.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0.40	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.17,0.3,0.4	0.08	0.31	-0.01	16	64%	0.47	3	-0.07	10	80%	0.10
Jimmy Butler	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.17	0.01	13	58%	0.30	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.05
Taj Gibson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.02	9	55%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Marco Belinelli	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.09	-0.00	10	45%	0.15	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Teague	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	9	62%	0.06	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Daequan Cook	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	0.00	11	27%	-0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.33	0.33	0.08	0.24	-0.02	17	56%	0.36	2	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	4	87%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	7	50%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	7	43%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	41%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	5	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.08
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.18	-0.01	16	44%	-0.09	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.0	2.6	32.2	18.7	28.0	1.8	41.2	156.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +37.7%

CHI +18.8%

CHI +17.9%

MIA -13.2%

MIA -11.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	15.6	15.4	104.5	97.7	104.1
season	16.6	15.7		101.7	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.2		102.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.7	17.4	16.2	16.5	17.0
MIA	14.2	16.1	18.1	14.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	85	85	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-7	21	17.1	13.5	3.63	15.6	16.0	-0.45
Taj Gibson	49	46	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.35	9	-2	11	15.9	18.3	-2.47	15.5	15.6	-0.10
Joakim Noah	71	71	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-4	15	17.3	15.5	1.84	15.7	15.1	0.63
Nate Robinson	76	74	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	17.0	16.8	0.23	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Jimmy Butler	89	88	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	17.0	0.0	16.97	15.6	0.0	15.57
Nazr Mohammed	13	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	8	-9	16.3	17.1	-0.77	16.2	15.5	0.79
Marquis Teague	13	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.02	-3	10	-13	16.8	17.0	-0.23	16.0	15.5	0.51
Daequan Cook	4	3	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	14	-21	13.5	17.1	-3.63	16.0	15.6	0.45
Carlos Boozer	45	47	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	12	-17	17.8	16.1	1.64	15.3	15.9	-0.67

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	31	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-9	11	17.4	14.6	2.81	16.3	17.3	-0.97
Shane Battier	32	32	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-11	15	17.9	14.2	3.62	15.6	17.8	-2.19
Udonis Haslem	34	33	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.07	1	-8	9	15.3	15.7	-0.45	17.5	16.6	0.92
Chris Andersen	28	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-8	9	17.8	14.5	3.25	16.3	17.3	-0.92
Mike Miller	12	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-6	5	13.2	15.9	-2.68	18.1	16.8	1.28
Dwyane Wade	63	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-15	23	14.3	18.8	-4.57	17.4	15.9	1.46
Chris Bosh	52	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.30	-10	3	-13	14.7	16.9	-2.24	17.6	15.9	1.69
Mario Chalmers	54	55	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	2	-11	14.7	16.9	-2.19	17.4	16.2	1.18
LeBron James	81	81	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	8	-23	15.2	19.4	-4.19	17.1	15.9	1.20
Ray Allen	53	54	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	9	-25	16.5	14.2	2.22	16.1	18.2	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 125, DAL 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.57,0.16,0	92.4%
BOS 104, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.62,0.73,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.26,0	91.4%
SEA 84, DEN 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.68,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.15,0	91.0%