NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	84		Excitement	7.8 [250]		MVP	Aaron Williams (SEA): +7.3%
Denver Nuggets	80		Comeback	4.9 [405]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (DEN): -25.2%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Perkins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.08	0.00	7	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
Detlef Schrempf	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	9	52%	0.13	1	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Jim McIlvaine	0.02	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	-0.00	10	48%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wingate	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.18,-0.3,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	19	45%	0.02	4	-0.23	6	83%	0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	8	71%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Eric Washington	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	19	55%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Bobby Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	12	31%	-0.17	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.3	24.4	15.8	21.6	2.5	34.2	124.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +7.0%

SEA +31.7%

SEA +0.4%

SEA +11.0%

DEN -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	17.3	15.6	98.8	95.2	102.5
season	15.3	16.2		109.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	16.2		109.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.2	18.0	15.8	18.7	16.8
DEN	14.1	16.3	19.3	20.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Perkins	49	50	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.49	9	-5	14	17.1	16.4	0.62	17.6	16.8	0.83
Gary Payton	77	77	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-9	22	16.4	20.6	-4.22	17.8	11.3	6.55
Hersey Hawkins	58	54	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-8	20	16.6	17.2	-0.56	18.3	15.5	2.73
Dale Ellis	44	44	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.63	0	4	-4	17.6	15.9	1.73	15.5	19.2	-3.75
Detlef Schrempf	67	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.47	-1	5	-6	16.4	18.1	-1.66	16.9	18.8	-1.97
Aaron Williams	12	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-1	6	14.2	17.2	-3.07	19.2	16.9	2.30
Jim McIlvaine	44	41	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.19	5	-1	6	17.3	16.2	1.07	17.8	16.8	1.06
David Wingate	16	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	7	-10	17.0	16.8	0.25	17.0	17.4	-0.36
Greg Anthony	8	7	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.08	-9	13	-22	20.6	16.4	4.22	11.3	17.8	-6.55
Vin Baker	50	51	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.14	-11	15	-26	16.6	17.1	-0.49	17.2	17.5	-0.28

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	41	39	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-8	12	17.5	17.1	0.35	17.0	16.6	0.42
Johnny Newman	45	44	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.06	6	-10	16	15.7	19.2	-3.49	18.2	15.2	3.01
Priest Lauderdale	19	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	-2	0	16.1	17.6	-1.53	15.2	17.2	-2.00
Joe Wolf	29	32	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	15.7	18.1	-2.38	16.0	17.3	-1.28
Anthony Goldwire	39	40	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.51	4	-8	12	17.7	16.9	0.85	18.2	15.5	2.74
Dean Garrett	65	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.43	-2	-2	0	17.6	16.1	1.53	17.2	15.2	2.00
Eric Washington	61	62	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.27	-13	9	-22	17.6	16.3	1.29	16.5	17.6	-1.05
Bobby Jackson	60	60	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	7	-18	17.7	16.2	1.51	15.7	19.5	-3.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.68,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 116, CLE 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.42,0	91.4%
LAL 105, MEM 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.53,0.86,0.79,0.45,0.17,0	91.2%
CHI 93, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.16,0	91.0%