NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	9.2 [107]		MVP	Rick Fox (BOS): +39.2%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	5.1 [159]		LVP	Mark Jackson (DEN): -40.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.39	-0.01	0.41	0.00	12	50%	0.43	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15	0.00	0.15	-0.00	11	48%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Alton Lister	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	8	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
David Wesley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0	0.08	-0.06	0.01	14	76%	0.22	4	-0.23	5	80%	0.02
Marty Conlon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dino Radja	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	18	47%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Greg Minor	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21	0.03	-0.22	0.01	15	53%	-0.10	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	-0.01	13	66%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	13	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.02	13	68%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.18,-0.23,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.04	0.01	18	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.07
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.33,-0.41	-0.41	-0.15	-0.27	-0.01	11	27%	-0.14	4	-0.27	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.2	23.6	15.6	22.4	2.5	36.8	124.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +60.4%

DEN -16.8%

BOS +1.7%

BOS +5.4%

DEN -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	15.2	15.6	110.6	110.9	104.4
season	14.8	15.2		101.8	102.3
opponent	15.3	14.7		108.8	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	15.2	15.4	17.0	15.7
DEN	19.1	13.6	13.4	15.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Minor	70	68	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.34	23	-21	44	16.2	14.5	1.73	15.7	13.7	1.99
Dino Radja	76	75	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.46	11	-9	20	15.6	16.3	-0.73	15.6	13.7	1.85
David Wesley	90	89	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	0	2	15.7	17.5	-1.83	15.3	13.0	2.29
Rick Fox	53	51	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.46	-3	5	-8	15.2	16.5	-1.32	14.9	15.7	-0.80
Antoine Walker	60	61	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.57	-10	12	-22	15.6	16.0	-0.40	14.7	16.2	-1.42
Eric Williams	63	60	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	-2	6	15.7	15.9	-0.19	15.7	14.2	1.48
Marty Conlon	15	16	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	8	-14	17.1	15.5	1.65	12.5	15.8	-3.29
Alton Lister	43	40	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	13	-24	16.0	15.6	0.38	15.0	15.4	-0.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	56	57	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.05	11	-13	24	14.1	17.0	-2.88	16.3	14.9	1.41
Ervin Johnson	78	80	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.13	2	-4	6	15.2	15.1	0.09	16.2	13.1	3.14
Brooks Thompson	19	20	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.00	3	-5	8	13.4	15.7	-2.26	14.4	16.1	-1.64
Mark Jackson	88	89	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.3	12.7	2.58	15.8	14.8	1.00
Tom Hammonds	40	36	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-1	0	14.3	15.9	-1.53	14.9	16.2	-1.30
Antonio McDyess	59	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	6	-14	15.9	14.0	1.85	15.7	15.8	-0.07
Ricky Pierce	61	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.52	-3	1	-4	16.0	13.7	2.23	15.3	16.7	-1.37
LaPhonso Ellis	59	62	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.49	-12	10	-22	15.8	14.1	1.71	15.9	15.4	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.62,0.73,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 104, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.45,0.4,0.58,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.27,0	91.5%
CHI 93, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.16,0	91.4%
ORL 106, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.45,0.15,0	91.3%