NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	96		Excitement	9.2 [127]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +27.5%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	5.8 [326]		LVP	Julius Randle (NYK): -56.5%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Bullock	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	90%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	8	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	9	70%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Obi Toppin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	57%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Immanuel Quickley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	9	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nerlens Noel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	2	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	16	55%	0.02	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.00
RJ Barrett	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	14	41%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Julius Randle	-0.57	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.38,-0.57	-0.16	-0.44	-0.03	18	30%	-0.46	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.02	0.25	-0.01	15	50%	0.30	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.28,0.19	0.19	0.17	0.04	0.02	10	91%	0.23	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.13	3	-0.11	16	81%	-0.01
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.00	8	61%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,-0.13,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	0.06	-0.16	0.02	15	58%	0.01	2	-0.14	15	87%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.09	-0.17	-0.01	7	22%	-0.22	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	25.4	15.4	31.4	2.0	40.2	144.2
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.9%

MIA +17.0%

NYK -14.1%

MIA +0.2%

MIA +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.4	14.4	103.2	105.4	111.3
season	15.2	14.6		109.2	109.3
opponent	14.9	14.6		110.4	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.3	15.8	15.5	16.5	15.5
MIA	15.7	17.8	14.5	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nerlens Noel	36	37	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.04	12	-14	26	15.2	15.7	-0.50	16.4	14.8	1.60
Derrick Rose	38	38	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.06	6	-8	14	16.3	15.0	1.38	16.1	15.0	1.03
Alec Burks	50	51	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.23	9	-11	20	15.3	15.7	-0.40	15.3	15.6	-0.32
Obi Toppin	19	20	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-4	6	17.2	15.1	2.12	18.1	14.7	3.39
Immanuel Quickley	40	41	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.25	7	-9	16	16.0	15.1	0.92	15.5	15.4	0.17
Elfrid Payton	53	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	7	-16	15.1	16.0	-0.92	15.4	15.5	-0.17
Julius Randle	74	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	2	-6	15.1	17.2	-2.12	14.7	18.1	-3.39
RJ Barrett	54	53	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	7	-16	14.9	16.3	-1.39	15.1	15.9	-0.81
Mitchell Robinson	56	55	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.27	-14	12	-26	15.9	14.9	0.96	15.1	16.0	-0.95
Reggie Bullock	45	45	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.40	-10	8	-18	15.5	15.5	-0.03	15.2	15.7	-0.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	69	70	1.06	-0.56	1.62	0.33	25	-23	48	14.7	17.7	-3.00	16.0	14.2	1.74
Kelly Olynyk	59	60	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.17	19	-17	36	14.6	16.9	-2.32	15.8	15.1	0.72
Tyler Herro	70	70	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.51	2	0	2	15.4	15.4	0.01	15.3	16.3	-1.09
Bam Adebayo	70	68	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.46	-5	7	-12	15.7	14.8	0.87	15.7	15.1	0.56
Duncan Robinson	65	64	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.52	-12	14	-26	15.4	15.5	-0.14	15.8	14.9	0.92
Precious Achiuwa	17	19	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	-3	8	15.2	15.5	-0.32	14.7	15.7	-0.99
Kendrick Nunn	63	63	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.21	8	-6	14	15.5	15.3	0.16	15.9	14.8	1.02
Andre Iguodala	42	41	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.36	-16	18	-34	16.3	14.8	1.50	15.0	15.9	-0.90
Gabe Vincent	10	10	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.12	-16	18	-34	21.2	14.7	6.45	11.5	16.0	-4.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.68,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 86, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.28,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.47,0.54,0.85,0.98,1	91.3%
DET 97, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.75,0.71,0.83,0.91,1	91.1%
HOU 103, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.17,0.27,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.73,1	91.0%