NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	5.2 [694]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +13.1%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.3 [911]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -18.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.13	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.00	23	73%	0.28	7	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Mychal Mulder	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Brad Wanamaker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jordan Poole	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	16	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevon Looney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Wiseman	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.09	13	64%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	2	67%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Damion Lee	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	3	29%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Eric Paschall	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Draymond Green	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	2	12%	-0.05	5	-0.13	4	25%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.03	15	52%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	16	59%	0.10	3	-0.04	7	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	7	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	11	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bol Bol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	18	40%	-0.04	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.8	30.1	15.4	26.6	3.4	31.2	134.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +15.5%

DEN +3.1%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +20.2%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	12.2	15.1	14.4	99.0	107.5	111.3
season	13.5	15.0		109.9	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.5		112.3	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	11.8	11.1	12.7	12.2
DEN	13.4	14.3	15.6	17.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mychal Mulder	13	14	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.15	7	-17	24	12.8	12.1	0.64	16.6	14.8	1.72
Brad Wanamaker	34	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.22	8	-18	26	14.1	11.3	2.73	15.6	14.8	0.71
Jordan Poole	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	7.0	12.3	-5.26	21.5	15.0	6.55
Damion Lee	39	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-14	18	12.6	12.0	0.69	16.9	14.1	2.79
James Wiseman	64	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-10	10	10.6	14.7	-4.10	14.6	15.9	-1.30
Draymond Green	58	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	-6	2	10.9	13.8	-2.89	14.6	15.6	-0.98
Andrew Wiggins	80	83	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-10	10	11.7	13.7	-1.93	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Kent Bazemore	22	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	4	-18	15.7	11.3	4.39	14.2	15.3	-1.08
Eric Paschall	42	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	14.9	10.4	4.49	15.5	14.8	0.72
Kelly Oubre Jr.	70	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-3	-4	11.2	14.3	-3.07	14.7	15.7	-1.00
Kevon Looney	19	18	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.13	-17	7	-24	14.9	11.6	3.34	15.1	15.1	0.04
Stephen Curry	83	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	0.01	-21	11	-32	11.8	13.9	-2.15	14.7	16.4	-1.74

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	67	67	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	0	10	15.4	14.5	0.85	13.1	10.7	2.39
JaMychal Green	57	57	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.10	12	-2	14	16.1	13.9	2.15	12.9	11.3	1.61
Nikola Jokic	79	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	0	10	15.0	15.3	-0.25	11.9	13.2	-1.25
Jamal Murray	84	83	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	2	6	14.9	15.9	-0.99	12.2	12.4	-0.19
Will Barton	75	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	5	0	14.8	15.7	-0.90	11.0	15.0	-4.01
PJ Dozier	49	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	8	-6	15.0	15.1	-0.10	12.7	11.8	0.90
Paul Millsap	58	56	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	10	-10	13.9	16.5	-2.64	10.8	13.8	-2.97
Facundo Campazzo	24	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	12	-14	17.0	14.5	2.49	13.8	11.7	2.05
Isaiah Hartenstein	14	13	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	6	-2	14.6	15.1	-0.50	15.3	11.8	3.54
Bol Bol	23	22	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	9	-8	14.9	15.1	-0.21	11.9	12.3	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.92,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
LAC 91, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
ATL 100, NOP 115	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%