NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	7.4 [372]		MVP	Richaun Holmes (SAC): +22.7%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	2.7 [620]		LVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): -29.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	9	77%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.00	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	9	41%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Will Barton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	14	42%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	9	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monte Morris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	8	35%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.03	14	56%	0.04	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	15	29%	-0.08	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.05	-0.02	14	71%	0.23	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	11	55%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	46%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.09	-0.03	17	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.02
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	12	23%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Buddy Hield	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3	-0.30	-0.22	-0.08	-0.00	13	19%	-0.15	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	24.3	14.4	26.4	2.6	38.4	134.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +0.2%

DEN +10.8%

DEN +31.7%

DEN +2.3%

DEN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	17.1	13.5	14.2	105.2	102.2	109.6
season	15.0	14.3		112.0	109.0
opponent	14.5	14.5		110.9	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	19.0	17.9	14.2	17.3	17.1
SAC	12.0	14.0	14.6	13.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	36	34	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-3	13	16.3	17.5	-1.24	15.7	12.2	3.53
Jerami Grant	48	46	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	0	7	16.2	17.9	-1.73	14.7	12.3	2.41
Jamal Murray	63	62	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	0	7	16.8	17.5	-0.71	12.7	15.3	-2.61
Malik Beasley	36	34	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	1	5	16.9	17.1	-0.22	16.1	12.0	4.09
Torrey Craig	33	31	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	4	-1	17.4	16.9	0.57	16.0	12.2	3.80
Will Barton	61	59	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	4	-1	16.8	17.5	-0.73	12.4	15.6	-3.22
Monte Morris	32	30	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	5	-3	18.0	16.6	1.47	15.3	12.7	2.61
Gary Harris	63	60	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	7	-7	16.9	17.3	-0.34	11.9	16.6	-4.68
Paul Millsap	51	50	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.15	0	7	-7	17.2	16.9	0.35	12.0	15.3	-3.22
Nikola Jokic	57	54	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.18	-3	10	-13	18.1	15.5	2.64	12.4	15.0	-2.58

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richaun Holmes	61	59	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.39	13	-20	33	12.8	14.9	-2.10	17.7	16.0	1.71
Trevor Ariza	42	44	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-10	13	14.7	12.5	2.17	17.0	17.1	-0.10
Bogdan Bogdanovic	35	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-2	-3	15.8	12.1	3.69	16.1	17.6	-1.59
De'Aaron Fox	71	75	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-9	11	12.3	17.7	-5.38	17.7	14.6	3.11
Harrison Barnes	62	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-7	7	12.7	15.1	-2.36	17.4	16.3	1.14
Cory Joseph	24	25	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	2	-11	16.8	12.4	4.44	15.9	17.5	-1.53
Dewayne Dedmon	31	36	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	11	-29	14.9	12.8	2.10	15.9	17.7	-1.82
Nemanja Bjelica	68	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	3	-13	13.1	14.7	-1.56	16.5	18.5	-1.98
Buddy Hield	66	68	-0.55	0.04	-0.59	-0.22	-11	4	-15	12.8	15.3	-2.45	17.5	16.0	1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.7,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.22,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 106, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.04,0	92.4%
BOS 103, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.05,0	92.2%
NJN 91, NOH 70	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.52,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	91.9%