NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	8.0 [308]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +21.2%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	25.5 [88]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -30.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.21	0.10	0.11	0.00	15	68%	0.26	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	90%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.07	-0.00	14	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney McGruder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	50%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21	-0.16	-0.07	-0.03	11	19%	-0.16	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.07
Bam Adebayo	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.22,-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	3	22%	-0.04	2	-0.18	3	0%	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,-0.07,-0.3	-0.01	-0.31	-0.01	14	52%	0.07	3	-0.37	1	0%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	5	82%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	5	54%	0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Buddy Hield	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	16	64%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.07
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	14	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.09
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.01	6	23%	-0.06	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Harry Giles III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.1,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.14	-0.01	17	33%	-0.21	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	28.3	15.3	23.6	2.3	37.3	134.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -20.0%

SAC +12.5%

SAC +5.8%

SAC +53.1%

MIA -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	14.8	13.0	14.3	92.3	99.0	109.3
season	14.8	13.3		106.3	109.2
opponent	14.3	14.3		110.5	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	16.1	15.0	15.2	14.8
SAC	13.0	13.4	13.8	11.9	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	41	40	0.37	-0.87	1.23	-0.10	16	-22	38	14.7	14.9	-0.18	12.9	13.1	-0.20
Rodney McGruder	45	44	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.16	0	-6	6	14.2	15.3	-1.01	14.4	11.9	2.46
Udonis Haslem	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-6	6	1.0	15.0	-13.95	17.0	13.0	4.04
Hassan Whiteside	59	58	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.08	2	-8	10	16.3	12.9	3.40	13.1	12.9	0.20
Duncan Robinson	12	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	-1	-4	14.6	14.8	-0.26	13.6	12.9	0.66
James Johnson	43	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.31	-16	10	-26	14.4	15.1	-0.76	14.1	12.2	1.96
Bam Adebayo	45	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	2	-10	12.9	16.3	-3.40	12.9	13.1	-0.20
Dion Waiters	69	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.52	-1	-5	4	15.4	13.6	1.88	12.0	14.9	-2.90
Josh Richardson	83	83	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.41	-5	-1	-4	14.0	17.9	-3.87	13.3	11.5	1.80
Dwyane Wade	55	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	1	-8	15.6	14.0	1.58	12.5	13.6	-1.13
Justise Winslow	67	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.45	-6	0	-6	15.5	13.6	1.94	12.3	14.4	-2.14

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bogdan Bogdanovic	72	71	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.40	11	-5	16	13.1	12.7	0.42	15.2	14.1	1.11
Willie Cauley-Stein	52	54	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	0	6	12.2	13.8	-1.63	15.1	14.5	0.65
Buddy Hield	73	74	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	1	4	12.1	15.2	-3.06	15.6	12.9	2.65
Harrison Barnes	81	81	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	1	4	12.7	14.3	-1.62	14.9	14.6	0.32
De'Aaron Fox	63	65	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.52	-2	8	-10	12.2	14.3	-2.08	15.4	13.8	1.68
Yogi Ferrell	40	39	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.20	8	-2	10	14.3	12.2	2.08	13.8	15.4	-1.68
Marvin Bagley III	43	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.19	6	0	6	13.0	13.0	-0.08	14.8	14.8	-0.08
Alec Burks	32	32	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.12	1	5	-4	14.9	12.1	2.77	13.1	15.6	-2.53
Nemanja Bjelica	23	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.02	-5	11	-16	13.7	12.8	0.95	13.8	15.2	-1.39
Harry Giles III	36	35	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.03	-5	11	-16	14.4	12.3	2.14	14.3	15.1	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 82, SEA 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.05,0.12,0.23,0.91,1	92.4%
LAL 105, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.72,1	92.1%
HOU 120, DAL 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.37,1	92.0%