NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	82		Excitement	6.6 [509]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +30.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	85		Comeback	19.2 [99]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -19.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	13	61%	0.16	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.08
Mike James	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.01	0.07	-0.01	11	50%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Trenton Hassell	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Mark Blount	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	8	63%	0.09	4	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	9	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.09	-0.01	9	65%	0.13	3	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18,-0.2	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	12	40%	-0.03	2	-0.17	1	100%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.04	0.25	-0.01	20	48%	0.31	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	11	58%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	30%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	14	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	0.05
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	14	35%	-0.07	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.6	28.8	14.8	26.6	0.8	36.8	130.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -13.3%

SEA +13.4%

SEA +3.4%

SEA +48.7%

MIN -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SEA	NBA	MIN	SEA	NBA
this game	17.1	15.8	15.4	93.2	97.7	104.5
season	15.4	15.4		101.9	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		108.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.8	17.0	19.4	16.2	17.1
SEA	16.9	17.3	14.9	14.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	41	41	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.07	5	-8	13	17.3	16.9	0.49	15.8	15.8	-0.04
Rashad McCants	10	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.05	-3	0	-3	16.2	17.2	-0.99	17.6	15.6	1.98
Randy Foye	35	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.17	-7	4	-11	17.3	16.9	0.39	16.1	15.7	0.43
Marko Jaric	24	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.12	-7	4	-11	18.3	16.6	1.72	17.1	15.4	1.71
Ricky Davis	80	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.44	0	-3	3	16.9	18.5	-1.56	15.7	17.4	-1.74
Mike James	56	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.65	7	-10	17	16.6	17.9	-1.30	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Kevin Garnett	81	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.44	-1	-2	1	17.0	17.9	-0.84	15.8	15.7	0.09
Trenton Hassell	60	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-3	3	16.9	17.4	-0.46	15.3	16.9	-1.54
Craig Smith	53	54	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.47	-9	6	-15	17.3	16.7	0.56	15.8	15.8	0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Gelabale	51	53	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.35	17	-14	31	14.9	17.1	-2.14	17.6	16.3	1.32
Earl Watson	55	56	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-11	25	15.2	16.8	-1.61	17.6	16.1	1.50
Damien Wilkins	69	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.45	7	-4	11	15.3	18.0	-2.74	17.3	16.4	0.91
Rashard Lewis	74	75	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	0	3	15.5	17.6	-2.10	17.1	17.1	0.00
Chris Wilcox	73	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.50	-1	4	-5	15.8	16.0	-0.21	16.6	19.4	-2.79
Johan Petro	40	40	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.15	-3	6	-9	18.0	14.0	3.97	17.0	17.1	-0.05
Nick Collison	35	35	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	12	-21	16.1	15.7	0.38	17.1	17.1	-0.04
Luke Ridnour	38	38	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	0.03	-13	16	-29	17.1	14.8	2.27	16.1	17.8	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.05,0.12,0.23,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 96, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.73,1	92.4%
MEM 92, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.15,0.37,0.33,0.73,1	91.9%
IND 99, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.15,0.2,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.3,0.24,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.09,0.59,1	91.7%