NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	120		Excitement	6.8 [471]		MVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): +40.7%
Dallas Mavericks	123		Comeback	24.8 [79]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -7.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.25	0.21	0.06	0.02	16	73%	0.26	1	-0.01	13	69%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.12	0.17	-0.04	0.01	10	87%	0.16	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Omri Casspi	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.01	5	110%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	13	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.06	-0.02	9	50%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	8%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,-0.07	0.08	-0.13	0.02	14	59%	-0.03	1	-0.04	11	82%	-0.09

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.07,0.41	0.41	0.09	0.34	0.02	8	76%	0.47	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.24	0.04	0.03	20	74%	0.27	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.13	0.13	0.22	-0.02	0.06	18	77%	0.23	3	-0.10	12	75%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.01	8	72%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	80%	0.07	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.8	35.7	18.6	31.2	2.8	39.3	155.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.2%

DAL +10.1%

DAL +5.7%

HOU -17.4%

DAL +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	15.1	125.0	128.1	105.2
season	14.3	15.3		109.5	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.2		107.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	13.9	14.8	18.8	15.5
DAL	15.6	14.4	14.0	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	24	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.07	-4	1	-5	15.5	15.5	0.06	14.6	14.5	0.08
Omri Casspi	32	32	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	1	-5	14.6	15.9	-1.31	14.3	14.6	-0.33
Francisco Garcia	20	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.15	-8	5	-13	16.3	15.3	1.07	14.4	14.5	-0.09
Jeremy Lin	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	8	-19	13.8	16.6	-2.75	14.4	14.5	-0.11
Terrence Jones	64	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-6	9	15.9	14.6	1.31	14.6	14.3	0.33
Dwight Howard	71	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	15.6	15.2	0.46	14.5	14.6	-0.08
James Harden	83	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.50	3	-6	9	15.8	13.6	2.18	14.3	15.6	-1.24
Chandler Parsons	76	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.56	5	-8	13	15.3	16.3	-1.07	14.5	14.4	0.09
Patrick Beverley	73	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.55	0	-3	3	15.9	14.3	1.63	14.7	13.9	0.84

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	64	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	-3	9	14.9	13.7	1.13	16.0	14.3	1.70
Jose Calderon	57	57	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.56	-1	4	-5	14.7	14.2	0.54	15.8	15.1	0.76
Monta Ellis	80	81	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	1	1	14.4	14.9	-0.45	15.4	16.1	-0.75
Shawn Marion	70	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.65	-9	12	-21	14.4	14.8	-0.42	15.5	15.5	0.05
Samuel Dalembert	61	62	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.49	-5	8	-13	14.6	14.3	0.25	16.2	14.1	2.09
Jae Crowder	23	23	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	0	3	14.9	14.4	0.54	16.4	15.2	1.17
DeJuan Blair	35	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.14	6	-3	9	14.3	14.6	-0.25	14.4	16.1	-1.69
Shane Larkin	35	36	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.18	7	-4	11	14.0	14.8	-0.83	15.4	15.6	-0.22
Vince Carter	55	54	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.15	6	-3	9	14.3	14.8	-0.57	14.2	17.1	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.37,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.42,1	93.5%
LAC 98, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.28,1	92.9%
MIA 96, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.73,1	92.0%