NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	126		Excitement	6.0 [649]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +29.9%
Washington Wizards	118		Comeback	1.5 [1101]		LVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): -17.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.22	0.05	-0.03	24	68%	0.37	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
DeMarcus Cousins	0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.01	12	71%	0.15	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	3	92%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Alfonzo McKinnie	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	18	55%	0.11	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	6	58%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	3	78%	0.07	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Klay Thompson	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	13	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chasson Randle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.10	-0.00	6	92%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.01	0.04	16	71%	0.19	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	7	93%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	13	71%	0.14	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	11	60%	-0.00	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	14	24%	-0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	22	42%	-0.09	3	-0.09	8	62%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.5	30.5	15.7	27.4	3.5	28.2	135.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +33.3%

GSW +15.3%

GSW +12.7%

WAS -13.5%

GSW +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	WAS	NBA	GSW	WAS	NBA
this game	13.5	14.1	14.3	121.2	112.4	109.3
season	13.4	13.8		114.5	109.8
opponent	14.3	15.0		112.4	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.6	13.0	13.2	15.0	13.5
WAS	16.2	13.2	15.0	12.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	82	82	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.25	15	-7	22	13.0	15.3	-2.30	14.0	14.4	-0.43
Stephen Curry	78	79	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-5	18	13.1	14.7	-1.59	14.2	13.8	0.43
Kevon Looney	38	40	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-6	20	12.1	14.2	-2.10	13.2	14.6	-1.37
Andre Iguodala	55	57	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-4	16	13.3	13.6	-0.28	13.9	14.3	-0.32
Alfonzo McKinnie	35	37	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	4	0	13.2	13.6	-0.39	13.3	14.5	-1.27
Draymond Green	70	69	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	12	-16	14.1	12.2	1.82	14.5	13.3	1.20
Klay Thompson	77	76	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	6	-4	13.8	12.4	1.37	14.1	14.0	0.08
Shaun Livingston	35	35	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	16	-24	14.0	13.2	0.77	13.4	14.4	-1.00
DeMarcus Cousins	50	50	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	16	-24	14.5	12.5	1.96	15.4	12.9	2.49

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Dekker	35	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-7	6	15.0	13.6	1.40	14.0	13.2	0.84
Troy Brown Jr.	13	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-2	-4	17.6	13.6	4.02	12.1	13.6	-1.56
Thomas Bryant	45	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-4	0	15.6	12.9	2.67	13.4	13.5	-0.09
Chasson Randle	33	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-1	-6	15.7	13.4	2.34	13.8	13.3	0.45
Trevor Ariza	86	87	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-9	10	13.6	16.4	-2.84	13.8	11.6	2.17
Tomas Satoransky	85	86	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.33	3	-11	14	13.5	16.6	-3.16	13.7	12.5	1.16
Jeff Green	61	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-4	0	13.8	14.5	-0.62	13.2	13.9	-0.65
Otto Porter Jr.	78	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	1	-10	13.4	16.2	-2.86	13.3	13.9	-0.54
Bradley Beal	89	87	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	5	-18	13.7	16.1	-2.32	13.1	15.3	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.33,0.23,0.41,0.15,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 115, BKN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.07,0.05,0,0.01,0,0	94.3%
SEA 117, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.13,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
MIL 81, HOU 76	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	93.1%