NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	81		Excitement	5.8 [621]		MVP	Sherman Douglas (MIL): +8.7%
Houston Rockets	76		Comeback	1.3 [497]		LVP	Clyde Drexler (HOU): -24.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sherman Douglas	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	12	73%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Elliot Perry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	10	62%	0.10	3	-0.07	6	67%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	17	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chucky Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Andrew Lang	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	16	49%	-0.01	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.07

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	35	51%	0.07	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	9	28%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	12	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Clyde Drexler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25	-0.25	-0.17	-0.08	-0.01	19	30%	-0.15	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	23.4	15.4	22.4	2.5	33.6	122.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +47.7%

MIL +6.8%

HOU -19.2%

MIL +13.4%

MIL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	16.9	15.9	15.6	92.0	86.4	104.4
season	16.0	15.5		103.9	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.5		103.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	17.9	16.3	19.4	16.9
HOU	14.3	17.2	16.5	15.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	78	78	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-4	13	16.6	19.2	-2.62	15.8	16.4	-0.62
Glenn Robinson	79	79	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.38	8	-3	11	16.4	21.4	-5.09	15.9	15.1	0.83
Vin Baker	81	82	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-6	17	16.6	19.7	-3.08	15.9	15.7	0.20
Sherman Douglas	61	60	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.35	7	-2	9	16.0	18.9	-2.96	15.6	16.4	-0.74
Ray Allen	66	66	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	1	3	16.5	18.1	-1.62	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Johnny Newman	31	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.08	-2	7	-9	19.1	15.7	3.38	16.2	15.6	0.58
Elliot Perry	27	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	7	-9	18.9	16.0	2.96	16.4	15.6	0.74
Chucky Brown	7	6	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	11	-17	19.7	16.6	3.08	15.7	15.9	-0.20
Armen Gilliam	10	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	9	-13	19.2	16.6	2.62	16.4	15.8	0.62

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bullard	0	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-5	5	0.0	15.9	-15.85	2.0	17.0	-15.05
Sam Mack	23	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-9	13	15.7	15.9	-0.27	20.2	15.6	4.64
Othella Harrington	20	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-3	1	17.3	15.4	1.94	18.8	16.3	2.54
Randy Livingston	27	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-2	-1	17.0	15.3	1.71	18.2	16.3	1.94
Matt Maloney	61	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-3	1	15.3	17.0	-1.71	16.3	18.2	-1.94
Clyde Drexler	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-3	1	15.5	20.2	-4.63	16.9	16.7	0.22
Kevin Willis	74	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.8	16.3	-0.52	16.3	19.6	-3.36
Hakeem Olajuwon	82	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	15.6	19.8	-4.27	17.1	13.8	3.26
Mario Elie	71	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	7	-19	16.3	14.1	2.22	15.7	21.3	-5.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 94, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.07,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0	94.5%
DAL 90, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.07,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.01,0	93.8%
DET 98, NOP 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.18,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.01,0.02,0	93.6%