NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	94		Excitement	5.9 [648]		MVP	Ike Diogu (GSW): +16.4%
Houston Rockets	89		Comeback	1.0 [629]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -11.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Diogu	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.07	0.02	4	93%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.08	-0.02	22	48%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.02	7	47%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
Chris Taft	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	22	45%	0.00	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.04
Zarko Cabarkapa	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	11	54%	0.09	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	63%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	0.02	-0.04	0.10	28	45%	-0.12	0	0.00	15	67%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.5	26.4	16.6	30.8	1.8	47.3	154.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +30.0%

HOU -0.1%

GSW +3.0%

GSW +15.1%

GSW +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	17.2	15.7	15.6	106.8	102.3	104.4
season	14.8	16.1		102.9	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.5		101.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	17.0	17.1	17.2	17.5	17.2
HOU	15.8	15.6	16.3	15.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	77	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-4	13	16.8	19.6	-2.81	15.3	18.4	-3.02
Baron Davis	80	79	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-5	15	17.3	15.9	1.44	16.0	12.7	3.28
Troy Murphy	69	66	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-1	7	16.9	18.2	-1.24	15.8	15.4	0.45
Ike Diogu	35	36	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.12	15	-10	25	19.2	15.9	3.30	18.2	14.0	4.21
Mike Dunleavy	50	48	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	2	1	16.2	18.4	-2.18	15.4	16.1	-0.69
Derek Fisher	55	55	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.36	-7	12	-19	17.1	17.3	-0.24	15.0	16.9	-1.87
Chris Taft	11	10	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.07	7	-2	9	18.7	17.0	1.77	19.5	15.2	4.27
Zarko Cabarkapa	18	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	6	-7	19.2	16.7	2.50	16.5	15.5	0.96
Andris Biedrins	31	31	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.09	-8	13	-21	15.2	18.3	-3.12	13.0	17.2	-4.23
Calbert Cheaney	14	15	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.02	-9	14	-23	19.1	16.8	2.33	15.3	15.8	-0.47

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	3	4	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.16	9	-14	23	5.7	16.1	-10.42	13.2	17.4	-4.12
Luther Head	40	40	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.20	9	-14	23	16.1	15.4	0.79	18.7	15.9	2.83
Moochie Norris	5	6	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-7	9	9.2	16.1	-6.92	12.7	17.5	-4.85
Josh Davis	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-5	5	0.0	15.7	-15.72	27.0	17.1	9.93
Ryan Bowen	21	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-5	5	14.5	16.1	-1.58	16.6	17.4	-0.74
Dikembe Mutombo	16	16	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	9	-23	20.2	14.7	5.55	17.9	17.0	0.92
Stromile Swift	65	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-1	-3	15.3	17.1	-1.83	17.1	17.5	-0.44
Rafer Alston	62	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	0	-5	16.3	14.2	2.08	18.0	15.4	2.61
Juwan Howard	81	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	15.7	16.0	-0.30	17.0	19.4	-2.44
Tracy McGrady	74	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	1	-7	15.9	14.8	1.12	17.0	18.4	-1.35
David Wesley	68	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.21	-12	7	-19	15.4	16.7	-1.30	16.6	19.4	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.07,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 81, HOU 76	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	94.5%
BOS 116, CLE 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.47,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.1,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0	93.9%
ATL 98, ORL 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.4%