NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	116		Excitement	6.4 [575]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +17.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Comeback	1.3 [1004]		LVP	Kevin Love (CLE): -22.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.07	0.01	14	68%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	10	73%	0.23	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	-0.00	17	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	53%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Aron Baynes	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	13	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.04	0.02	12	58%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Guerschon Yabusele	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.03	0.02	15	40%	0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.01	0.01	9	79%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Collin Sexton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.00	19	59%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquese Chriss	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	58%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	57%	0.06	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
David Nwaba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	64%	0.06	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.16	-0.05	0.01	13	33%	-0.10	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.5	25.7	14.0	29.2	2.5	32.2	127.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +45.8%

CLE -12.0%

BOS +10.2%

BOS +9.2%

CLE -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	14.0	15.1	14.3	116.0	108.2	109.3
season	13.9	15.5		109.9	106.3
opponent	13.9	14.7		116.5	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.8	15.8	13.0	13.5	14.0
CLE	13.8	14.8	17.0	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	70	68	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.11	18	-8	26	13.6	15.0	-1.35	15.1	15.0	0.17
Jayson Tatum	69	69	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.13	17	-7	24	13.9	14.3	-0.44	15.2	14.7	0.56
Al Horford	55	55	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.14	11	-1	12	14.2	13.8	0.48	14.5	15.8	-1.22
Marcus Morris	61	60	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	4	2	13.3	15.1	-1.82	15.6	14.2	1.47
Aron Baynes	51	50	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	2	6	14.6	13.4	1.12	15.4	14.8	0.61
Gordon Hayward	64	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	6	-2	13.9	14.2	-0.27	15.1	15.0	0.13
Terry Rozier	59	60	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	13	-16	14.5	13.3	1.23	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Guerschon Yabusele	14	12	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.02	-1	11	-12	15.4	13.8	1.55	13.2	15.3	-2.09
Daniel Theis	19	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	14	-18	13.2	14.2	-1.00	15.2	15.1	0.16
Jaylen Brown	38	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	16	-22	14.4	13.8	0.60	14.7	15.3	-0.57

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Nwaba	37	36	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-12	14	15.7	14.7	0.95	13.7	14.2	-0.47
Marquese Chriss	25	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-10	10	15.2	15.0	0.16	13.9	14.1	-0.19
Tristan Thompson	37	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-5	0	15.1	15.1	0.04	14.1	14.0	0.18
Jordan Clarkson	61	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.23	2	-12	14	15.5	14.3	1.22	13.5	14.9	-1.45
Nik Stauskas	23	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-3	-4	13.1	15.7	-2.55	14.6	13.8	0.83
Larry Nance Jr.	63	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-11	12	15.0	15.2	-0.14	14.1	13.9	0.16
Brandon Knight	35	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	0	-10	13.7	15.8	-2.08	15.1	13.5	1.66
Collin Sexton	77	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-5	0	15.9	12.0	3.86	13.8	14.9	-1.12
Cedi Osman	72	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.9	15.6	-0.73	14.1	13.9	0.19
Kevin Love	60	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.08	-18	8	-26	14.9	15.3	-0.38	14.1	13.9	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.47,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.1,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 94, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.07,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0	93.9%
MIL 81, HOU 76	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	93.0%
ORL 105, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.27,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.1,0.16,0.06,0.02,0	92.7%