NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	90		Excitement	6.5 [527]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +12.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	83		Comeback	1.1 [622]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -22.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.08	-0.04	29	52%	0.20	4	-0.07	9	89%	0.04
Marquis Daniels	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	12	64%	0.15	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	9	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	14	32%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	62%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Darrell Armstrong	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.02	12	52%	0.12	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.02	13	58%	0.13	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.02
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	83%	0.03
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	14	45%	0.01	3	-0.12	5	60%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.09	0.01	13	41%	-0.03	6	-0.20	6	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	32.5	17.6	27.3	2.3	45.4	155.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.8%

MEM -3.2%

DAL +17.3%

DAL +5.2%

MEM -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	17.4	15.5	15.6	102.3	95.4	104.4
season	16.4	17.1		109.0	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		100.0	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.0	19.8	17.1	16.4	17.4
MEM	16.5	18.1	16.4	12.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	81	81	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	17.3	18.9	-1.54	15.5	14.3	1.21
Dirk Nowitzki	68	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.22	10	-3	13	18.8	12.8	6.01	15.5	15.2	0.32
Erick Dampier	50	51	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.25	6	1	5	18.5	16.0	2.54	15.2	15.9	-0.73
Devin Harris	76	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	17.2	18.9	-1.71	15.0	18.5	-3.53
Adrian Griffin	34	35	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	-3	13	17.5	17.4	0.09	16.9	14.5	2.48
Darrell Armstrong	46	43	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.11	2	5	-3	16.9	18.0	-1.11	15.3	15.7	-0.40
DeSagana Diop	38	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	6	-5	16.0	18.5	-2.54	15.9	15.2	0.73
Keith Van Horn	47	46	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.31	-10	17	-27	16.5	18.5	-1.96	15.1	15.9	-0.84

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	14	14	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.09	5	-12	17	13.8	15.8	-2.00	17.7	17.4	0.32
Bobby Jackson	19	20	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-10	13	16.9	15.0	1.90	16.2	17.8	-1.54
Antonio Burks	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-7	7	18.7	15.1	3.62	14.0	17.8	-3.84
Jake Tsakalidis	6	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-7	7	19.8	15.1	4.70	13.4	17.9	-4.45
Hakim Warrick	6	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-6	5	12.7	15.7	-3.00	18.0	17.4	0.60
Lorenzen Wright	39	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	3	-13	16.5	14.6	1.82	18.9	16.4	2.45
Shane Battier	75	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-4	1	15.0	18.3	-3.33	17.5	17.2	0.30
Mike Miller	66	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-5	3	15.7	14.8	0.86	17.2	18.2	-1.04
Pau Gasol	72	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	15.3	16.0	-0.65	17.7	16.4	1.31
Damon Stoudamire	79	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	0	-7	15.1	18.7	-3.62	17.8	14.0	3.84
Eddie Jones	51	50	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	7	-21	15.0	16.1	-1.16	17.4	17.5	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.07,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 104, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.38,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.03,0,0	94.2%
PHX 117, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.1,0.07,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MIL 81, HOU 76	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	93.8%