NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	7.7 [365]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +35.3%
Sacramento Kings	113		Comeback	7.2 [287]		LVP	Iman Shumpert (SAC): -10.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.35	0.11	0.23	-0.01	24	62%	0.48	4	-0.13	10	60%	-0.03
Paul Millsap	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	6	62%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.07	0.02	7	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Juancho Hernangomez	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	18	65%	0.17	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	56%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.26	0.26	0.21	0.08	0.03	19	76%	0.29	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.02	10	73%	0.23	3	-0.11	2	50%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	14	61%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	9	70%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harry Giles III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	8	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Iman Shumpert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	27.3	15.3	26.2	0.6	34.5	134.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.8%

DEN +2.0%

DEN +37.2%

SAC -13.5%

DEN +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	14.1	14.3	118.2	115.3	109.3
season	14.8	13.3		112.0	109.2
opponent	14.3	14.6		110.5	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	13.1	15.9	16.0	15.1
SAC	15.5	13.6	14.8	12.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	76	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-6	16	15.4	14.1	1.35	14.1	14.1	-0.04
Mason Plumlee	60	60	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-8	20	15.9	13.9	2.02	13.9	14.5	-0.63
Nikola Jokic	64	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-8	20	15.5	14.4	1.16	14.3	13.7	0.62
Paul Millsap	46	46	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.29	2	2	0	15.2	15.1	0.14	14.3	13.9	0.36
Torrey Craig	59	57	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	-3	10	14.8	15.5	-0.68	14.9	13.1	1.79
Malik Beasley	53	54	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.31	-2	6	-8	14.5	15.8	-1.36	13.4	15.0	-1.61
Gary Harris	65	64	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.49	-8	12	-20	15.0	15.4	-0.44	13.8	14.7	-0.86
Juancho Hernangomez	31	30	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	15.8	14.8	1.00	14.4	14.0	0.37
Monte Morris	23	21	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	10	-16	14.1	15.4	-1.35	14.1	14.1	0.04
Trey Lyles	18	19	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	13	-22	12.9	15.6	-2.66	14.1	14.1	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Jackson	43	43	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.14	9	-13	22	13.8	14.3	-0.49	14.6	15.5	-0.91
Kosta Koufos	12	11	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-4	4	14.9	14.0	0.92	13.1	15.4	-2.28
Iman Shumpert	43	43	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-3	2	14.5	13.8	0.63	15.9	14.5	1.43
Yogi Ferrell	42	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-1	-2	13.8	14.4	-0.61	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Harry Giles III	39	40	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-2	0	14.2	14.1	0.11	14.5	15.5	-1.04
De'Aaron Fox	56	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-3	2	14.4	13.8	0.61	15.6	14.5	1.08
Buddy Hield	67	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	1	-6	14.3	13.6	0.73	15.5	14.1	1.44
Willie Cauley-Stein	60	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	2	-8	14.3	13.8	0.53	15.2	15.0	0.15
Nemanja Bjelica	66	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.35	-7	3	-10	13.5	15.4	-1.92	15.8	13.8	2.05
Bogdan Bogdanovic	62	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	0	-4	14.1	14.2	-0.09	14.4	16.3	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, CLE 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.25,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	93.9%
LAC 98, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.47,0.28,0.42,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.05,0,0,0,0	92.7%
NYK 113, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.84,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.77,0.61,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0	92.2%