NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Excitement	7.1 [459]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +30.6%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.2 [524]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -20.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.14	0.16	-0.01	24	60%	0.39	3	-0.08	9	78%	-0.00
Robert Covington	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	9	64%	0.08	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Taj Gibson	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	61%	0.07	1	-0.00	3	67%	0.02
Dario Saric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Gorgui Dieng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tyus Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	12	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	16	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Okogie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.00	7	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Jerryd Bayless	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	57%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	11	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	68%	0.11	3	-0.07	3	67%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	13	52%	0.03	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	15	57%	0.07	3	-0.10	7	71%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	0.02	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	9	38%	-0.00	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	10	35%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.08	-0.01	15	31%	-0.12	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	36.5	14.8	28.5	2.4	35.7	144.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +11.5%

MIN +16.2%

MIA -6.9%

MIN +29.4%

MIA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	13.4	14.3	114.1	104.0	109.3
season	14.4	14.8		110.2	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.0		106.7	111.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.1	17.4	15.5	15.1	15.5
MIA	15.2	11.9	15.8	11.2	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Jones	73	74	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-5	19	15.2	16.3	-1.13	14.7	10.0	4.70
Andrew Wiggins	73	73	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.05	19	-10	29	15.0	16.8	-1.81	14.1	11.6	2.58
Karl-Anthony Towns	72	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-6	21	15.8	14.9	0.91	14.6	10.4	4.15
Taj Gibson	58	57	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-4	17	15.1	16.1	-1.08	15.8	10.4	5.38
Josh Okogie	50	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	7	-5	16.4	14.6	1.75	11.9	15.1	-3.12
Robert Covington	74	75	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.28	-6	15	-21	15.4	15.8	-0.33	13.7	12.8	0.91
Dario Saric	43	44	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	9	-9	15.7	15.4	0.28	10.3	15.9	-5.57
Gorgui Dieng	24	25	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.13	-8	17	-25	16.2	15.3	0.86	10.4	14.4	-4.00
Jerryd Bayless	28	27	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	13	-17	15.7	15.5	0.23	10.4	14.6	-4.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	62	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.22	5	-14	19	13.5	13.3	0.20	15.7	15.2	0.56
Hassan Whiteside	61	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-11	13	12.5	14.9	-2.35	16.8	13.6	3.13
Rodney McGruder	46	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-3	-3	15.5	11.6	3.90	15.3	15.7	-0.43
Derrick Jones Jr.	51	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	0	-9	15.7	11.1	4.58	13.9	17.1	-3.18
Kelly Olynyk	53	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-10	11	11.5	15.6	-4.11	16.0	14.9	1.08
Tyler Johnson	58	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.24	-2	-7	5	11.9	15.5	-3.55	15.9	15.0	0.81
Dwyane Wade	59	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-4	-1	12.2	15.2	-2.93	15.7	15.2	0.49
Bam Adebayo	35	35	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	3	-15	14.7	12.8	1.92	14.9	15.9	-0.97
Josh Richardson	75	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.06	-19	10	-29	14.2	11.2	2.99	15.1	16.8	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.32,0.17,0.06,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, TOR 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	94.9%
DEN 115, NOP 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.8%
OKC 120, GSW 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.5%