NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	115		Excitement	5.4 [748]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +26.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	98		Comeback	1.2 [398]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (NOP): -12.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.19	0.08	0.01	19	76%	0.30	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.08	0.03	11	73%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	12	71%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	6	85%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	8	80%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
JJ Hickson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	14	39%	-0.01	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Randy Foye	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	8	29%	0.02	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	17	63%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.02	7	79%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	9	72%	0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	17	51%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	13	36%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.4	2.5	30.3	15.8	24.3	2.3	29.7	124.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.1%

DEN +3.9%

DEN +7.3%

NOP -3.3%

NOP -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	16.8	15.0	14.9	126.4	108.9	105.1
season	14.9	14.3		104.3	104.3
opponent	15.0	14.9		107.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	16.3	18.4	19.9	16.8
NOP	14.2	15.0	16.7	14.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	72	72	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.16	27	-10	37	16.7	17.2	-0.50	14.5	17.1	-2.57
Gary Harris	62	59	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	2	13	17.1	16.1	1.04	14.5	16.0	-1.53
Kenneth Faried	51	52	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.20	24	-7	31	15.5	18.5	-3.05	14.6	15.6	-1.05
Emmanuel Mudiay	65	65	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.08	17	0	17	17.0	16.3	0.65	14.1	17.2	-3.10
Will Barton	67	67	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	7	3	17.4	15.1	2.35	15.6	13.3	2.28
Jameer Nelson	46	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	8	1	17.7	15.9	1.78	16.0	14.0	1.96
Randy Foye	48	46	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.17	1	16	-15	16.6	17.1	-0.53	15.5	14.5	0.93
JJ Hickson	13	14	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	15	-13	13.8	17.3	-3.46	15.6	14.9	0.76
Nikola Jokic	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	28.0	16.7	11.31	0.0	15.0	-15.00
Mike Miller	7	6	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	25	-33	17.1	16.8	0.36	16.3	14.9	1.43
Kostas Papanikolaou	23	23	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.11	-12	29	-41	16.7	16.8	-0.10	16.1	14.6	1.52

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmer Fredette	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	0.0	15.0	-15.00	28.0	16.7	11.31
Toney Douglas	29	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.28	9	-26	35	16.2	14.4	1.78	17.8	16.3	1.46
Anthony Davis	14	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-15	13	15.6	14.9	0.76	13.8	17.3	-3.46
Luke Babbitt	47	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-15	13	14.5	15.5	-0.98	17.3	16.3	1.01
Ish Smith	69	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	-11	5	14.7	16.0	-1.37	17.2	15.5	1.62
Alexis Ajinca	7	7	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-8	-1	16.9	14.8	2.01	18.7	16.7	2.06
Dante Cunningham	61	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-9	1	15.6	13.7	1.93	15.7	19.0	-3.26
Ryan Anderson	63	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-9	1	14.6	15.9	-1.27	17.0	16.3	0.71
Alonzo Gee	42	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.09	-14	-3	-11	14.8	15.2	-0.40	16.1	17.4	-1.33
Jrue Holiday	44	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.15	-20	3	-23	15.0	15.0	-0.00	17.0	16.6	0.40
Eric Gordon	74	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.17	-25	8	-33	14.8	16.1	-1.37	16.9	16.3	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	95.0%
CHI 111, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.7%
TOR 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	94.4%