NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	5.8 [615]		MVP	Randy Brown (CHI): +17.2%
Sacramento Kings	93		Comeback	1.2 [601]		LVP	Corliss Williamson (SAC): -11.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Brown	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	5	100%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Jordan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.04	19	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.02
Steve Kerr	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	17	61%	0.13	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.02	11	62%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Bill Wennington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	9	32%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.01	15	63%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Salvadori	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	12	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Grayer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	8	67%	0.05	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	26	52%	0.04	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	12	48%	-0.07	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	24.4	16.4	24.3	2.7	28.3	122.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +24.3%

CHI +13.9%

SAC -1.5%

CHI +12.1%

CHI +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAC	NBA	CHI	SAC	NBA
this game	14.8	16.2	15.6	119.4	100.0	104.4
season	15.5	15.4		110.5	102.4
opponent	15.4	16.1		106.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	14.8	14.1	15.0	14.8
SAC	15.5	14.6	18.0	17.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Longley	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.04	20	-2	22	14.6	15.2	-0.60	16.0	16.8	-0.81
Scottie Pippen	83	83	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	3	12	14.8	14.7	0.07	16.0	18.2	-2.24
Michael Jordan	76	76	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.10	13	5	8	14.6	15.5	-0.87	17.2	11.8	5.36
Randy Brown	30	30	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	12	-6	15.8	14.3	1.58	15.6	16.5	-0.94
Toni Kukoc	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.10	13	5	8	14.6	15.2	-0.60	16.8	14.7	2.06
Ron Harper	44	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.17	15	3	12	14.4	15.1	-0.76	16.1	16.3	-0.18
Jason Caffey	45	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	14	-10	15.3	14.3	1.02	15.7	16.7	-1.05
Bill Wennington	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	19	-20	15.3	14.7	0.61	18.6	15.8	2.80
Jud Buechler	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	15	-12	10.0	14.9	-4.87	12.3	16.3	-4.00
Steve Kerr	36	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.13	2	16	-14	14.7	14.8	-0.11	14.7	17.1	-2.34

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Gamble	10	8	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.10	-2	-16	14	15.2	16.3	-1.13	16.7	14.6	2.17
Kevin Salvadori	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-15	12	12.3	16.3	-4.00	10.0	14.9	-4.87
Tyus Edney	30	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-18	18	14.8	16.9	-2.07	14.0	15.1	-1.08
Jeff Grayer	68	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-10	2	15.2	18.9	-3.66	15.1	13.9	1.21
Michael Smith	66	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	-8	-2	16.5	15.4	1.07	14.4	15.7	-1.33
Olden Polynice	68	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	-4	-10	16.8	14.6	2.25	15.1	14.0	1.09
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	63	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	0	-18	16.9	14.8	2.07	15.1	14.0	1.08
Corliss Williamson	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.06	-19	1	-20	16.4	15.3	1.12	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Mitch Richmond	83	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.08	-16	-2	-14	16.3	15.2	1.13	14.6	16.7	-2.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	94.9%
DEN 115, NOP 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.7%
POR 110, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0,0	94.6%