NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	90		Excitement	5.8 [627]		MVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): +5.5%
Chicago Bulls	80		Comeback	1.1 [953]		LVP	Tracy Murray (TOR): -11.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	12	44%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	11	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Antonio Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.04	-0.02	17	38%	-0.00	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.05	11	55%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	13	32%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	5	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	16	61%	0.07	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Khalid El-Amin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	8	50%	-0.03	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	13	56%	0.04	5	-0.14	8	87%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	9	54%	0.01	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.1	2.5	27.5	16.4	23.4	2.5	32.2	124.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -5.1%

TOR +4.4%

TOR +31.8%

TOR +12.2%

TOR +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.5	98.9	90.9	100.9
season	15.8	16.4		103.7	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.4		104.9	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.3	13.8	17.0	19.3	16.5
CHI	15.0	16.3	16.5	15.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	72	70	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.04	19	-9	28	16.3	17.1	-0.79	15.7	15.5	0.23
Alvin Williams	81	76	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-1	12	16.4	17.3	-0.92	15.3	18.2	-2.88
Antonio Davis	79	76	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	3	4	16.4	17.2	-0.79	15.3	18.2	-2.88
Mark Jackson	66	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	0	10	15.9	18.0	-2.15	15.8	15.4	0.45
Morris Peterson	58	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	1	8	16.4	16.7	-0.29	15.1	16.7	-1.68
Tracy Murray	22	21	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	9	-8	17.1	16.3	0.86	18.2	14.9	3.29
Dell Curry	31	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	10	-10	16.9	16.3	0.64	16.1	15.5	0.60
Muggsy Bogues	15	16	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.12	-1	11	-12	18.2	16.1	2.06	15.1	15.8	-0.68
Keon Clark	31	30	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	16	-22	17.1	16.1	0.98	16.6	15.2	1.34

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	16	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-7	4	17.0	15.4	1.61	15.7	16.7	-0.97
Khalid El-Amin	16	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-13	16	15.1	15.8	-0.68	18.2	16.1	2.06
Brad Miller	42	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-10	10	16.3	15.2	1.11	17.1	15.9	1.18
Bryce Drew	34	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	-3	-4	14.7	16.3	-1.64	14.5	17.9	-3.41
Metta World Peace	61	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.13	-2	-8	6	15.6	15.8	-0.19	16.2	17.0	-0.82
Marcus Fizer	39	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-7	4	16.1	15.4	0.71	17.4	15.8	1.67
Ron Mercer	88	91	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	15.7	0.0	15.68	16.5	0.0	16.48
Elton Brand	80	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.19	-12	2	-14	15.4	18.0	-2.55	16.4	17.1	-0.71
Fred Hoiberg	64	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	6	-22	15.7	15.5	0.25	16.8	15.7	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 102, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.1,0.23,0.17,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	94.9%
WAS 95, TOR 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
DEN 115, NOP 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.4%