NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.3 [596]		MVP	Juancho Hernangomez (DEN): +25.2%
San Antonio Spurs	111		Comeback	1.8 [766]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -17.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juancho Hernangomez	0.25	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.24	0.06	0.05	13	84%	0.25	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Torrey Craig	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.01	0.03	6	62%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Brandon Goodwin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Thomas Welsh	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Lydon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.09	0.01	0.11	19	55%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Monte Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	16	47%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	5	47%	-0.02	2	-0.07	5	20%	-0.04
Trey Lyles	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.18	0.00	-0.01	19	24%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.07	0.00	19	69%	0.25	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.05	-0.01	12	58%	0.16	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	10	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chimezie Metu	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.12	-0.01	0.14	17	62%	0.01	2	-0.05	14	79%	-0.01
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	7	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	5	15%	-0.05	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	27.1	14.5	27.5	2.3	33.3	132.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.7%

DEN -1.6%

DEN -3.0%

SAS +13.5%

SAS +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.0	14.6	14.3	103.0	109.9	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		112.0	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.6		110.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	13.0	14.5	13.3	14.0
SAS	14.1	15.8	14.9	13.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Welsh	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-15	22	6.9	14.6	-7.77	13.9	14.7	-0.82
Brandon Goodwin	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-15	22	6.9	14.6	-7.77	13.9	14.7	-0.82
Tyler Lydon	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-12	16	6.6	14.6	-8.01	11.6	14.9	-3.29
Trey Lyles	33	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-12	16	14.0	14.0	0.02	14.3	14.8	-0.42
Mason Plumlee	58	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	0	-8	15.1	12.5	2.54	15.3	13.7	1.53
Monte Morris	61	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-4	0	14.4	13.5	0.92	14.3	15.2	-0.90
Torrey Craig	70	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-4	0	13.9	14.4	-0.50	15.0	13.6	1.42
Juancho Hernangomez	73	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	2	-12	14.7	12.3	2.41	15.1	13.5	1.62
Nikola Jokic	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	1	-10	14.1	13.8	0.33	14.9	14.2	0.66
Malik Beasley	63	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	14.1	13.9	0.12	14.1	15.7	-1.61
Jamal Murray	56	58	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.08	-20	12	-32	14.6	13.2	1.42	14.4	15.0	-0.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	78	78	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-7	22	14.7	14.5	0.20	14.1	13.6	0.49
Bryn Forbes	65	65	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	0	8	14.6	14.7	-0.18	14.5	13.2	1.31
Derrick White	58	59	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	5	-2	14.7	14.5	0.25	13.8	14.4	-0.63
Jakob Poeltl	39	38	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-7	22	13.8	15.2	-1.41	14.4	13.8	0.65
Marco Belinelli	48	46	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	6	-4	14.4	14.8	-0.45	14.0	14.1	-0.12
Patty Mills	41	41	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.17	8	0	8	14.0	15.0	-1.03	14.5	13.7	0.83
Davis Bertans	55	54	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	9	-10	14.5	14.8	-0.27	12.8	15.5	-2.74
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	68	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	8	-8	14.7	14.4	0.31	13.8	14.5	-0.66
Chimezie Metu	2	2	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	13	-18	26.5	14.4	12.11	7.0	14.2	-7.16
Rudy Gay	51	49	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	13	-18	15.4	13.8	1.61	14.9	13.2	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.46,0.72,0.81,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 98, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1	94.5%
TOR 98, NYK 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	93.0%
DEN 81, NOH 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.58,0.77,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.9%