NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	6.5 [495]		MVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): +20.8%
New York Knicks	103		Comeback	1.3 [112]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -13.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	8	73%	0.21	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Lou Williams	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.06	0.00	-0.05	16	54%	0.14	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
Patrick Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.14	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	11	56%	0.04	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	13	54%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	15	34%	-0.13	0	0.00	8	87%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.01	-0.03	15	59%	0.15	0	0.00	7	57%	0.01
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.00	3	82%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	7	79%	0.21	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Lance Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.02	8	44%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	12	61%	0.15	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.05
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cleanthony Early	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.7	31.3	16.6	26.7	2.0	40.3	145.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +28.9%

NYK +19.0%

TOR -3.5%

TOR -1.8%

NYK +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NYK	NBA	TOR	NYK	NBA
this game	14.2	15.7	15.1	100.0	108.4	104.2
season	15.6	16.1		109.1	98.5
opponent	15.0	15.0		108.3	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.9	11.4	15.0	14.0	14.2
NYK	17.4	15.8	16.3	13.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	19	18	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-5	5	12.1	14.7	-2.64	15.8	15.7	0.12
Amir Johnson	40	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.12	-2	-3	1	14.6	13.9	0.70	17.2	14.7	2.46
James Johnson	67	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-9	13	13.4	15.8	-2.37	15.7	15.6	0.15
Greivis Vasquez	69	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.41	4	-9	13	14.2	14.2	0.02	15.8	15.4	0.46
DeMar DeRozan	83	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-4	3	13.8	16.5	-2.70	15.8	15.1	0.65
Jonas Valanciunas	51	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	1	-7	16.1	12.1	4.07	16.3	15.0	1.32
Patrick Patterson	58	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	1	-7	14.2	14.1	0.10	15.1	16.4	-1.33
Lou Williams	71	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-1	-3	13.2	16.7	-3.48	15.1	17.3	-2.29
Terrence Ross	32	29	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	9	-23	16.5	13.1	3.44	14.5	16.2	-1.73

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Smith	39	41	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-7	19	14.6	16.5	-1.90	14.2	14.2	0.02
Lou Amundson	48	50	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	1	3	15.4	16.0	-0.62	14.8	13.6	1.18
Shane Larkin	38	39	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	1	3	15.9	15.5	0.44	15.5	13.3	2.25
Alexey Shved	43	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	6	-7	13.8	17.2	-3.46	13.2	15.0	-1.82
Lance Thomas	54	53	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	6	-7	15.0	16.5	-1.50	13.7	14.8	-1.10
Tim Hardaway Jr.	70	71	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.17	1	4	-3	16.2	14.3	1.91	14.0	14.7	-0.67
Cole Aldrich	31	33	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.03	7	-2	9	16.8	15.1	1.71	15.6	13.5	2.10
Cleanthony Early	36	38	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	0	5	16.7	15.1	1.58	15.7	13.2	2.49
Langston Galloway	54	55	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	4	-3	15.6	15.8	-0.17	13.3	15.3	-1.99
Andrea Bargnani	62	65	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.11	-7	12	-19	16.7	13.8	2.91	13.4	15.8	-2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.97,0.91,0.93,1,1,1	94.3%
NYK 73, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.89,0.8,0.9,0.95,0.89,0.94,0.99,1	94.3%
WAS 98, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1	94.1%