NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	4.5 [939]		MVP	Trey Lyles (DEN): +18.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Comeback	1.4 [397]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -18.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.03	0.02	6	114%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Juancho Hernangomez	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	12	54%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Malik Beasley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	23	46%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	47%	0.01	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	-0.14	0.01	-0.06	20	36%	-0.03	4	-0.05	5	80%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deonte Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	21	49%	0.04	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.02
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	11	54%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	14	53%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Alex Abrines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	15	39%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.21	-0.03	-0.06	23	30%	-0.12	4	-0.07	7	43%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.6	28.5	15.3	27.4	1.8	31.0	132.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +39.6%

DEN +8.5%

OKC -0.5%

OKC -4.5%

DEN +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.6	12.7	14.3	102.9	97.0	109.3
season	14.8	12.9		112.0	108.9
opponent	14.9	14.6		106.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	13.1	18.2	17.2	15.6
OKC	13.8	12.1	13.1	12.0	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	87	86	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	3	1	15.5	16.4	-0.92	12.4	14.9	-2.49
Juancho Hernangomez	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	3	1	15.3	16.6	-1.30	12.3	14.1	-1.85
Nikola Jokic	57	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	-8	23	15.4	15.8	-0.41	13.3	12.1	1.22
Monte Morris	40	39	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	0	7	16.0	15.3	0.71	14.3	11.8	2.51
Torrey Craig	76	77	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	9	-11	15.7	15.4	0.26	12.6	13.0	-0.39
Trey Lyles	38	37	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	2	3	16.7	15.0	1.78	14.1	12.0	2.11
Paul Millsap	64	64	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	5	-3	15.0	16.7	-1.78	12.0	14.1	-2.11
Malik Beasley	26	26	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.01	8	-1	9	16.2	15.4	0.72	13.3	12.5	0.76
Mason Plumlee	45	45	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.39	-8	15	-23	15.8	15.4	0.41	12.1	13.3	-1.22

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nerlens Noel	22	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	-5	3	13.6	12.5	1.14	16.7	15.3	1.36
Deonte Burton	29	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-6	5	13.4	12.5	0.94	15.0	15.9	-0.83
Alex Abrines	14	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	2	-11	13.4	12.6	0.80	17.3	15.3	1.93
Jerami Grant	67	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-9	11	12.0	14.1	-2.07	15.5	15.8	-0.26
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	48	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	3	-13	12.6	12.8	-0.18	14.5	16.6	-2.11
Patrick Patterson	20	20	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	3	-13	13.3	12.6	0.70	14.5	15.9	-1.33
Dennis Schroder	61	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-11	15	12.6	12.9	-0.26	16.0	15.0	0.93
Paul George	84	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-6	5	12.7	12.7	0.04	16.0	14.1	1.90
Russell Westbrook	81	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-4	1	13.0	11.9	1.05	15.9	14.5	1.38
Steven Adams	79	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-2	-3	12.5	13.6	-1.14	15.3	16.7	-1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 111, ORL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.9%
BOS 95, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.5%
MIA 88, DET 73	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%