NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	95		Excitement	3.1 [1153]		MVP	Eddie House (BOS): +13.1%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	1.2 [823]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -13.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.04	7	64%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.01	-0.06	18	60%	0.15	6	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	46%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	87%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	17	38%	0.03	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.02
Scot Pollard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	20	51%	0.03	4	-0.05	5	60%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.12	0.00	0.09	17	65%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	14	64%	0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	7	81%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	6	37%	-0.04	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.21	0.00	-0.08	11	30%	-0.06	6	-0.07	11	55%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	2.8	35.2	18.5	24.3	3.4	37.6	150.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +21.1%

BOS +16.4%

BOS +6.9%

BOS +4.4%

BOS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	13.3	15.4	100.0	90.4	105.7
season	15.6	16.0		108.0	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.9		108.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.4	15.3	18.4	18.5	17.1
MIA	14.3	13.5	13.5	12.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	57	57	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	6	-2	16.5	18.0	-1.46	12.1	15.2	-3.11
Ray Allen	85	83	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-1	12	17.4	15.2	2.15	13.4	13.1	0.27
Eddie House	35	36	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	8	-6	16.0	17.8	-1.83	12.3	14.0	-1.70
Paul Pierce	73	72	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	1	8	17.3	16.5	0.76	13.5	12.8	0.73
Kevin Garnett	74	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	2	6	16.8	18.4	-1.61	13.7	12.1	1.59
Rajon Rondo	68	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.32	-3	13	-16	18.2	14.5	3.64	13.4	13.1	0.38
Brian Scalabrine	11	12	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.07	9	1	8	15.5	17.3	-1.89	14.7	13.1	1.63
Scot Pollard	21	23	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	10	-10	18.9	16.6	2.28	11.8	13.8	-1.99
Kendrick Perkins	51	49	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	0	10	16.7	17.6	-0.91	14.9	11.6	3.28

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	24	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	-3	-4	16.9	12.1	4.76	17.8	16.9	0.86
Anfernee Hardaway	34	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.16	-9	-1	-8	15.3	12.2	3.03	17.6	16.9	0.70
Alonzo Mourning	28	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-7	4	11.0	14.3	-3.32	16.6	17.4	-0.80
Alexander Johnson	11	12	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	-1	-8	13.7	13.3	0.45	15.0	17.4	-2.43
Daequan Cook	37	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-12	14	12.2	14.1	-1.88	17.6	16.8	0.78
Ricky Davis	49	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-14	18	11.5	15.3	-3.80	18.0	16.2	1.80
Udonis Haslem	67	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	3	-16	14.1	11.4	2.65	16.6	18.3	-1.69
Dwyane Wade	84	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-5	0	13.5	12.3	1.15	16.9	18.6	-1.67
Shaquille O'Neal	66	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	14.3	11.0	3.32	17.4	16.6	0.80
Jason Williams	70	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-7	4	12.1	16.9	-4.76	16.9	17.8	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, BOS 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0	96.7%
CLE 111, NYK 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0	96.7%
MIA 88, MIL 67	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%