NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	3.2 [1145]		MVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): +10.4%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	1.4 [407]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -9.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.04	11	88%	0.13	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	13	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.01	7	86%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	16	66%	0.10	5	-0.09	9	78%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	70%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.03
Lamar Odom	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	13	56%	0.01	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	-0.08	13	22%	-0.06	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	8	67%	0.03	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	0.00	0.08	5	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	10	61%	0.02	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.04	16	58%	0.00	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	25	43%	-0.03	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.7	27.0	16.6	24.9	1.8	34.0	128.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.9%

ORL -0.8%

MIA +16.6%

ORL -5.5%

ORL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	16.0	15.7	119.4	110.1	100.5
season	16.2	15.7		99.3	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.9		108.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	17.3	17.3	14.7	15.7
ORL	16.2	17.9	16.9	13.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	75	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-3	19	16.4	12.9	3.47	16.0	15.9	0.03
Brian Grant	69	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-1	15	16.1	14.6	1.49	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Dwyane Wade	79	77	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	2	9	15.5	16.8	-1.29	15.6	18.4	-2.83
Rafer Alston	88	83	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	6	1	15.7	14.8	0.94	15.7	19.8	-4.15
Udonis Haslem	35	33	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	6	1	16.1	15.4	0.68	16.6	15.6	1.02
Lamar Odom	71	68	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	13	-13	15.5	16.3	-0.77	15.6	17.0	-1.42
Rasual Butler	37	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	8	-3	14.6	16.4	-1.77	17.4	15.0	2.44
Malik Allen	11	9	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	8	-3	13.1	16.0	-2.95	19.3	15.6	3.75

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reece Gaines	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	15.0	16.0	-0.98	11.0	15.7	-4.74
Tyronn Lue	45	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-13	13	15.9	16.0	-0.07	17.0	14.2	2.80
Zaza Pachulia	38	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-5	-3	15.3	16.5	-1.14	14.3	16.7	-2.38
Juwan Howard	77	81	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-13	13	15.3	20.3	-5.05	15.7	15.5	0.22
Steven Hunter	12	12	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.13	-13	0	-13	20.3	15.3	5.05	15.5	15.7	-0.22
Gordan Giricek	60	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-14	15	15.7	16.5	-0.77	15.8	15.3	0.52
Keith Bogans	32	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.24	-18	5	-23	17.2	15.3	1.91	15.4	15.8	-0.43
Drew Gooden	51	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-8	3	16.5	15.3	1.14	16.7	14.3	2.38
Rod Strickland	43	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	0	-13	16.0	15.9	0.11	14.3	16.9	-2.60
Tracy McGrady	86	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.18	-9	-4	-5	15.7	24.0	-8.31	15.7	16.5	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 88, DET 73	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
DAL 106, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
DEN 105, OKC 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.06,0,0	95.9%