NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	2.9 [960]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +7.7%
Detroit Pistons	73		Comeback	1.1 [970]		LVP	Ben Gordon (DET): -9.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.00	-0.04	19	57%	0.12	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.10	15	49%	0.08	5	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	56%	0.04	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	6	57%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	7	21%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	12	64%	0.05	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	35%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	5	45%	0.01	3	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.06	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	12	46%	-0.00	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	6	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	4	20%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.16	-0.00	-0.06	10	43%	-0.02	7	-0.08	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.5	31.3	18.5	26.2	2.7	30.3	137.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.5%

MIA +9.9%

DET -0.6%

MIA +11.9%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	15.8	15.6	95.7	80.2	102.8
season	15.5	16.3		105.6	99.5
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	14.5	16.0	19.6	15.7
DET	16.1	16.1	15.3	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.16	20	-5	25	16.1	14.6	1.46	16.0	15.3	0.67
Chris Bosh	71	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	0	15	16.2	14.2	1.96	15.9	15.3	0.54
Shane Battier	37	37	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.02	12	3	9	16.1	15.4	0.72	16.4	15.3	1.07
LeBron James	74	74	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	7	1	15.1	18.2	-3.13	15.1	18.7	-3.61
Norris Cole	33	30	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.01	9	6	3	15.0	16.1	-1.05	16.5	15.4	1.04
Mario Chalmers	59	61	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	9	-3	16.1	15.0	1.05	15.4	16.5	-1.04
Udonis Haslem	45	43	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	13	-11	17.0	14.4	2.62	15.9	15.7	0.17
Ronny Turiaf	22	22	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	15	-15	14.3	16.1	-1.82	16.4	15.6	0.78
Joel Anthony	36	35	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	9	-3	14.9	16.2	-1.25	16.5	15.3	1.16
James Jones	16	16	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.16	-3	18	-21	13.7	16.1	-2.37	13.5	16.3	-2.75

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Daye	13	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-15	15	16.8	15.6	1.17	18.1	15.2	2.90
Ben Wallace	43	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-18	21	15.9	15.6	0.31	17.5	14.0	3.49
Damien Wilkins	38	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-18	21	15.4	16.0	-0.60	16.7	14.9	1.85
Jason Maxiell	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-9	3	16.0	15.5	0.45	15.2	16.3	-1.10
Jonas Jerebko	39	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-6	-3	15.5	16.0	-0.45	16.3	15.2	1.10
Brandon Knight	51	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.20	-16	1	-17	15.5	16.1	-0.68	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Will Bynum	45	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-14	13	16.0	15.5	0.46	16.3	15.1	1.23
Tayshaun Prince	64	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-7	-1	15.2	17.2	-2.01	15.8	15.6	0.23
Greg Monroe	48	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.24	-18	3	-21	15.6	15.9	-0.31	14.0	17.5	-3.49
Ben Gordon	62	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.28	-23	8	-31	16.5	14.3	2.19	14.1	18.7	-4.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 126, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
DAL 106, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
MIA 111, ORL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	96.3%