NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	6.4 [592]		MVP	Yogi Ferrell (DAL): +31.8%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	2.5 [224]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -10.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.03	4	91%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	12	70%	0.13	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	10	46%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Devin Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	9	39%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	7	59%	0.07	3	-0.10	3	33%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	15	47%	0.03	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	9	21%	-0.08	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.23	0.08	-0.01	11	109%	0.37	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.02	16	53%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	8	68%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.03	11	77%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.11	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	47%	0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Kyle Collinsworth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	18	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.16	0.02	-0.03	9	35%	0.02	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	28.2	15.3	25.5	2.4	26.4	124.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +40.5%

DAL +0.8%

DAL +8.7%

DAL +2.5%

DEN -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	12.3	14.8	14.7	100.9	111.3	107.5
season	14.7	15.4		111.2	105.3
opponent	14.3	14.7		108.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	9.5	14.8	12.3	12.3
DAL	13.6	16.9	13.5	15.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	38	39	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-17	23	11.9	12.5	-0.58	14.9	14.8	0.08
Trey Lyles	43	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.17	5	-16	21	10.9	13.3	-2.38	14.5	15.1	-0.57
Devin Harris	49	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-17	23	11.4	13.1	-1.74	14.4	15.2	-0.85
Paul Millsap	43	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.25	-14	3	-17	12.5	12.2	0.32	15.6	14.3	1.27
Mason Plumlee	39	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.31	5	-16	21	11.9	12.6	-0.71	14.1	15.3	-1.21
Nikola Jokic	58	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-3	-5	12.5	12.1	0.32	15.5	14.1	1.37
Jamal Murray	54	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	-12	1	-13	12.7	11.9	0.82	15.2	14.5	0.64
Will Barton	67	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-7	3	12.6	11.9	0.67	14.5	15.5	-1.06
Wilson Chandler	70	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.06	-18	7	-25	12.9	11.1	1.79	14.8	14.9	-0.07
Gary Harris	69	69	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.11	-21	10	-31	12.9	11.2	1.70	15.0	14.6	0.31

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yogi Ferrell	83	84	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.04	19	-8	27	14.6	15.8	-1.19	13.1	9.4	3.67
Dennis Smith Jr.	74	75	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.06	17	-6	23	15.1	14.2	0.90	12.8	11.2	1.64
Nerlens Noel	55	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	0	11	15.1	14.5	0.58	12.5	12.1	0.47
Harrison Barnes	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	-1	13	14.8	14.9	-0.10	12.8	11.4	1.45
Doug McDermott	59	60	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	-1	13	14.7	15.1	-0.42	12.7	11.8	0.84
Dwight Powell	54	54	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	8	-5	14.8	14.9	-0.15	11.9	12.7	-0.80
Dirk Nowitzki	51	51	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	11	-11	14.5	15.1	-0.58	12.1	12.5	-0.47
J.J. Barea	53	51	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.22	-8	19	-27	14.7	15.0	-0.26	10.8	13.7	-2.89
Kyle Collinsworth	31	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.22	-11	22	-33	15.7	14.5	1.17	10.4	13.1	-2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 71, MIA 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,1,1	94.2%
MIL 86, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.73,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.0%
NJN 100, NYK 111	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%