NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	106		Excitement	8.5 [200]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +35.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	111		Comeback	3.1 [846]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): -18.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kosta Koufos	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	11	55%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	3	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Vince Carter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	13	57%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,0,0	-0.05	0.06	0.01	8	53%	0.11	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Zach Randolph	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	11	55%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.12,-0.18,-0.14,-0.19	-0.01	-0.15	0.02	16	57%	-0.02	5	-0.17	8	75%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35	0.35	0.19	0.17	0.01	17	71%	0.38	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.07
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.14	-0.01	5	86%	0.25	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.00	7	71%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	11	60%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,0.02,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	9	67%	0.24	3	-0.18	9	78%	0.03
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	57%	0.08	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	5	17%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	25.6	15.0	25.5	1.8	36.8	130.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +23.9%

MIN +38.0%

SAC -15.2%

MIN +3.1%

MIN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIN	NBA	SAC	MIN	NBA
this game	15.0	14.1	14.7	107.1	112.1	107.5
season	15.4	15.3		102.9	111.8
opponent	14.4	14.7		110.2	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.1	16.4	15.6	13.0	15.0
MIN	14.3	12.4	14.4	15.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	26	28	0.36	-0.86	1.22	-0.05	14	-19	33	14.5	15.2	-0.74	14.5	13.9	0.53
JaKarr Sampson	34	36	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-5	5	14.6	15.2	-0.55	14.2	14.0	0.27
Kosta Koufos	48	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.10	-1	-4	3	15.8	14.3	1.52	14.7	13.5	1.14
Garrett Temple	47	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-2	-1	16.2	13.9	2.29	14.8	13.5	1.35
Justin Jackson	48	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-8	11	13.9	16.0	-2.08	15.0	13.2	1.75
Buddy Hield	40	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	8	-21	15.4	14.7	0.65	13.0	14.8	-1.81
De'Aaron Fox	72	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	14.6	16.0	-1.41	14.3	13.6	0.66
Willie Cauley-Stein	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	1	-7	14.8	15.3	-0.47	13.7	14.5	-0.75
Zach Randolph	62	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	14.8	15.4	-0.59	13.8	14.5	-0.66
Bogdan Bogdanovic	64	65	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.21	-13	8	-21	15.3	14.4	0.94	13.2	15.8	-2.56

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	82	82	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.40	11	-6	17	14.2	13.3	0.95	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Karl-Anthony Towns	74	76	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-7	19	14.1	13.9	0.27	15.1	14.6	0.52
Jeff Teague	67	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	5	-5	14.1	14.0	0.07	14.5	16.2	-1.66
Taj Gibson	67	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	7	-9	14.1	14.0	0.07	14.5	16.2	-1.72
Jamal Crawford	42	42	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	0	5	14.5	13.8	0.65	16.3	14.1	2.17
Tyus Jones	32	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	0	5	14.0	14.1	-0.07	16.2	14.5	1.66
Nemanja Bjelica	32	31	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	0	5	14.0	14.1	-0.07	16.2	14.5	1.72
Andrew Wiggins	74	74	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.25	-4	9	-13	13.7	15.2	-1.55	14.7	15.8	-1.06
Gorgui Dieng	25	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	12	-19	13.9	14.1	-0.27	14.6	15.1	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.53,0.67,0.55,0.63,0.86,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 110, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	92.2%
CHI 91, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.84,1	92.1%
UTA 107, SAC 117	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.96,1	92.1%