NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	9.6 [91]		MVP	John Henson (MIL): +15.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	3.1 [250]		LVP	Nikola Mirotic (CHI): -34.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	6	80%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.06	0.03	-0.00	18	57%	0.23	2	-0.14	8	100%	0.05
Kirk Hinrich	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	11	48%	0.06	3	-0.08	7	57%	-0.07
Tony Snell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	20%	0.00	1	-0.05	3	33%	-0.05
Mike Dunleavy	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	7	52%	-0.01	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.04
E'Twaun Moore	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	5	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Joakim Noah	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.16	4	50%	-0.03
Aaron Brooks	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	11	44%	0.03	4	-0.18	3	33%	-0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.34	-0.13	-0.23	-0.02	10	30%	-0.14	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	0.00	7	69%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	9	72%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.02,0.05,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.02	15	44%	0.19	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	17	44%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	19	50%	0.01	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	6	33%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	31.6	15.7	32.3	2.4	41.3	149.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +32.0%

CHI -13.5%

MIL +3.2%

MIL +33.1%

CHI -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.1	94.8	101.1	104.2
season	15.5	14.5		105.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		101.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.5	13.9	16.5	16.8	15.6
MIL	16.5	13.3	14.8	14.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	39	39	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-5	6	15.9	15.4	0.47	13.8	15.3	-1.52
Mike Dunleavy	51	52	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.20	7	-11	18	15.5	15.6	-0.10	14.8	14.5	0.30
Pau Gasol	68	67	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.19	6	-10	16	15.2	16.6	-1.48	14.7	14.9	-0.20
Kirk Hinrich	21	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	3	-10	15.3	15.7	-0.39	12.9	15.2	-2.28
Tony Snell	23	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	2	-8	15.8	15.5	0.31	13.5	15.1	-1.58
Jimmy Butler	81	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-4	4	15.4	16.7	-1.27	14.9	13.8	1.09
E'Twaun Moore	15	14	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	1	-6	16.4	15.4	0.96	15.9	14.5	1.34
Joakim Noah	63	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	5	-14	15.9	15.1	0.77	15.5	13.4	2.09
Aaron Brooks	74	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.52	2	-6	8	15.4	16.1	-0.64	15.3	12.7	2.59
Nikola Mirotic	45	45	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	5	-14	16.0	15.2	0.85	14.2	15.2	-1.07

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Carter-Williams	64	66	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.47	10	-6	16	14.9	14.3	0.66	16.2	14.4	1.78
Zaza Pachulia	56	59	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	0	4	15.4	13.7	1.77	15.6	15.6	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	62	61	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.48	-2	6	-8	15.8	12.6	3.21	15.4	16.0	-0.64
Khris Middleton	68	66	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.47	-3	7	-10	15.3	13.3	2.00	15.6	15.6	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	52	53	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.33	-4	8	-12	15.3	13.9	1.42	16.3	14.7	1.67
O.J. Mayo	53	56	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	-4	12	13.9	15.7	-1.81	14.8	16.6	-1.81
Jared Dudley	32	35	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.09	6	-2	8	12.6	15.8	-3.21	16.0	15.4	0.64
Jerryd Bayless	46	48	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	2	0	13.5	15.9	-2.37	14.6	16.5	-1.90
John Henson	37	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.09	-1	5	-6	14.0	15.2	-1.18	15.9	15.4	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 118, MIL 126	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.66,0.55,0.72,0.84,0.98,1	92.7%
PHI 102, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.99,1	92.3%
SAC 106, MIN 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.53,0.67,0.55,0.63,0.86,0.92,1	92.1%