NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	109		Excitement	6.4 [589]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +37.3%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.6 [800]		LVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): -13.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	19	60%	0.26	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
James Harden	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.09	0.06	25	66%	0.29	4	-0.06	12	83%	0.02
Clint Capela	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	8	72%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	6	56%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Gerald Green	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.02	-0.02	8	57%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	54%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Markel Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.22	0.14	-0.01	20	73%	0.42	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.22	0.02	0.05	17	73%	0.24	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	21%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	0.06	16	46%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	12	37%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	7	21%	-0.10	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	27.3	14.5	26.5	2.5	24.6	123.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +37.6%

HOU +7.6%

MIA -9.9%

HOU +14.8%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.8	14.7	122.5	113.5	107.5
season	14.6	15.1		112.8	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.8		105.8	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.2	14.4	17.6	17.9	15.6
MIA	15.0	16.3	18.4	18.1	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Tucker	76	76	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.26	16	-8	24	15.6	15.6	-0.06	16.6	17.7	-1.05
Luc Mbah a Moute	69	68	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	-1	10	15.4	16.0	-0.63	17.3	15.1	2.17
James Harden	67	67	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-1	10	15.6	15.3	0.32	17.2	15.7	1.48
Clint Capela	55	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	4	0	15.2	16.1	-0.85	17.7	15.4	2.26
Chris Paul	69	67	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.33	-1	9	-10	16.3	13.0	3.30	16.2	18.6	-2.38
Nene	34	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	4	0	16.1	15.2	0.85	15.4	17.7	-2.26
Gerald Green	46	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	8	-8	14.9	16.3	-1.43	17.0	16.6	0.39
Markel Brown	29	30	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	9	-10	15.1	15.8	-0.73	16.2	17.1	-0.85

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	67	68	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.16	7	-15	22	16.7	17.1	-0.39	16.9	11.3	5.53
Hassan Whiteside	58	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	16.8	16.8	0.04	16.4	14.0	2.36
Derrick Jones Jr.	34	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-5	2	16.9	16.7	0.18	16.1	15.2	0.92
Josh Richardson	75	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-7	6	16.7	17.2	-0.49	15.2	17.0	-1.78
Bam Adebayo	31	30	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	3	-14	16.8	16.8	-0.04	14.0	16.4	-2.36
Justise Winslow	51	50	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	5	-18	16.8	16.8	-0.08	14.4	17.1	-2.70
James Johnson	66	67	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.29	-10	2	-12	16.9	16.6	0.25	15.5	15.7	-0.22
Tyler Johnson	63	63	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.30	-12	4	-16	16.9	16.6	0.31	15.2	16.4	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.31,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.57,0.37,0.26,0.11,0.22,0.11,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 101, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.08,0	92.5%
SAS 88, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0,0	92.5%
TOR 116, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	91.6%