NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	6.5 [496]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +20.3%
Los Angeles Clippers	79		Comeback	1.4 [602]		LVP	Quentin Richardson (LAC): -31.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,0,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2	0.03	0.16	-0.01	17	59%	0.22	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.02	9	67%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.02	7	86%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	48%	-0.01	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.04
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	0.01	-0.01	13	40%	-0.01	4	-0.11	9	44%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	9	57%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	3	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	12	33%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	8	47%	-0.00	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.02	11	64%	0.04	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.07	0.01	23	43%	-0.11	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.27	-0.08	-0.04	17	13%	-0.27	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	30.5	16.4	25.4	2.5	33.6	132.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +60.1%

SAS +7.2%

LAC -33.1%

SAS +13.7%

SAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	15.7	18.3	15.7	104.8	92.9	100.5
season	15.9	15.5		100.1	101.3
opponent	15.4	15.8		106.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.8	14.1	15.4	15.7	15.7
LAC	16.5	19.3	18.9	18.6	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	59	62	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.20	21	-12	33	16.6	13.7	2.87	18.6	17.5	1.17
Hedo Turkoglu	48	48	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-2	13	15.7	15.7	-0.02	18.8	17.7	1.11
Bruce Bowen	75	74	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	0	9	15.5	17.6	-2.04	18.3	18.5	-0.14
Tony Parker	65	66	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	3	3	16.0	14.7	1.29	18.0	19.4	-1.41
Jason Hart	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	4	1	13.0	16.3	-3.33	18.6	18.3	0.36
Rasho Nesterovic	60	58	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	8	-7	14.8	18.0	-3.22	18.3	18.5	-0.22
Matt Carroll	9	9	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	6	-3	13.9	16.0	-2.07	18.4	18.3	0.13
Robert Horry	36	36	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	14	-19	15.5	15.9	-0.42	18.7	18.1	0.63
Malik Rose	11	13	0.01	0.48	-0.47	0.01	0	9	-9	19.5	15.2	4.28	16.2	18.7	-2.57
Manu Ginobili	42	43	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	15	-21	16.4	15.1	1.33	18.2	18.5	-0.34

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	32	32	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.08	9	-18	27	18.5	18.2	0.27	14.7	16.4	-1.65
Predrag Drobnjak	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-7	5	18.5	18.3	0.19	17.3	15.6	1.69
Doug Overton	57	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-13	17	18.6	17.7	0.92	14.7	17.9	-3.23
Chris Kaman	52	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-6	3	17.7	19.4	-1.69	15.7	15.8	-0.09
Elton Brand	72	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-6	3	18.3	18.7	-0.43	15.5	17.0	-1.45
Chris Wilcox	37	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	0	-9	19.4	17.5	1.81	16.6	15.1	1.58
Keyon Dooling	29	30	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	5	-19	17.7	18.6	-0.92	16.8	15.1	1.70
Quentin Richardson	76	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	-2	-5	18.3	18.9	-0.63	15.9	14.1	1.82
Bobby Simmons	62	61	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.10	-20	11	-31	18.3	18.3	-0.03	16.0	15.0	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 97, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.62,0.48,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.31,0.22,0.15,0.02,0	93.5%
LAC 129, BOS 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.43,0.27,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.11,0,0,0	93.3%
IND 121, DET 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%