NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	121		Excitement	6.3 [597]		MVP	Monta Ellis (IND): +23.1%
Detroit Pistons	116		Comeback	1.6 [463]		LVP	Marcus Morris (DET): -6.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23	0.14	0.10	0.00	6	94%	0.25	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Paul George	0.22	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.07	0.04	17	73%	0.28	2	-0.06	10	100%	0.05
Kevin Seraphin	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.00	5	83%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Myles Turner	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.04	-0.02	12	65%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	74%	0.12	5	-0.09	7	86%	0.00
CJ Miles	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Al Jefferson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.06	0.03	14	73%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.06	0.02	13	52%	0.09	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.02	16	59%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	11	64%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	18	54%	0.09	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.02
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.05	14	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	27.2	15.7	24.3	2.5	32.5	129.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +49.7%

IND +11.5%

DET -12.7%

IND +3.7%

DET -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DET	NBA	IND	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	14.5	14.8	128.7	123.4	107.7
season	14.9	15.0		107.5	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.8		106.4	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.4	16.1	17.1	17.2	16.2
DET	15.0	13.2	15.6	14.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	38	41	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.21	16	-11	27	17.4	15.3	2.10	14.1	14.8	-0.70
CJ Miles	23	24	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	-6	17	17.3	15.8	1.56	14.7	14.4	0.27
Aaron Brooks	27	28	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-5	15	17.3	15.7	1.58	14.5	14.4	0.10
Al Jefferson	25	25	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	-2	9	17.3	15.8	1.57	14.0	14.6	-0.58
Thaddeus Young	65	66	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	2	1	15.4	17.9	-2.45	14.4	14.6	-0.20
Kevin Seraphin	29	28	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.11	2	3	-1	17.9	15.4	2.45	14.6	14.4	0.20
Myles Turner	69	69	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.20	-2	7	-9	15.8	17.3	-1.57	14.6	14.0	0.58
Jeff Teague	67	66	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	10	-15	15.7	17.3	-1.58	14.4	14.5	-0.10
Paul George	71	70	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	11	-17	15.8	17.3	-1.56	14.4	14.7	-0.27
Glenn Robinson	56	53	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.15	-11	16	-27	15.3	17.4	-2.10	14.8	14.1	0.70

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	30	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.12	-2	-3	1	15.2	14.1	1.07	17.7	15.5	2.20
Stanley Johnson	30	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-4	3	14.2	14.6	-0.39	16.9	15.8	1.10
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	77	78	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.28	3	-8	11	14.2	15.5	-1.30	15.5	19.6	-4.16
Jon Leuer	67	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	5	-15	14.7	14.0	0.66	16.2	16.1	0.13
Boban Marjanovic	20	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-1	-3	14.2	14.5	-0.28	17.7	15.7	2.01
Andre Drummond	67	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	0	-5	14.7	13.9	0.81	16.2	16.1	0.08
Reggie Jackson	64	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-2	-1	14.1	15.2	-1.07	15.5	17.7	-2.20
Marcus Morris	57	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	0	-5	15.1	13.6	1.49	15.9	16.6	-0.69
Tobias Harris	58	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-7	9	13.9	15.3	-1.40	16.4	15.8	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0,0	93.3%
NJN 83, CHA 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.32,0.1,0.09,0.01,0	92.6%
SAS 89, CHI 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.01,0,0,0	92.5%