NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	7.1 [436]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +26.4%
Indiana Pacers	106		Comeback	1.4 [399]		LVP	Domantas Sabonis (IND): -11.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26	0.06	0.16	-0.04	13	56%	0.26	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.14	-0.00	10	75%	0.28	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.07	0.02	10	73%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	56%	0.10	1	-0.03	9	78%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.01	16	56%	0.12	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.06	-0.12	0.03	9	70%	0.03	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	11	60%	0.16	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	8	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	4	64%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Joe Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	20	51%	0.14	4	-0.16	11	73%	0.02
TJ Leaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	15	55%	-0.01	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.6	28.4	15.3	25.4	2.3	40.8	139.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +69.0%

IND -8.7%

IND -0.8%

IND -12.2%

MIA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.5	13.1	14.7	114.0	105.0	107.5
season	15.1	14.8		105.4	108.3
opponent	15.0	14.6		106.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	15.6	16.1	16.6	15.5
IND	16.2	11.7	12.7	12.2	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	69	69	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-4	16	14.8	17.1	-2.32	13.0	13.5	-0.48
Hassan Whiteside	61	60	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.15	14	-6	20	15.2	16.0	-0.81	13.1	13.2	-0.10
Tyler Johnson	62	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.24	9	-1	10	16.1	14.6	1.58	12.6	14.1	-1.47
Josh Richardson	79	82	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	1	6	16.0	13.9	2.06	13.1	13.3	-0.22
Goran Dragic	65	65	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	1	6	15.4	15.8	-0.46	13.0	13.4	-0.39
Kelly Olynyk	55	57	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	3	2	15.3	15.8	-0.41	13.6	12.5	1.13
Derrick Jones Jr.	44	43	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	13	-18	15.0	15.9	-0.91	14.0	12.5	1.54
Bam Adebayo	65	64	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	17	-26	16.2	14.4	1.78	13.0	13.3	-0.29

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Young	14	12	0.10	-0.59	0.69	-0.11	7	-15	22	10.9	13.5	-2.65	15.9	15.5	0.44
TJ Leaf	19	19	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-9	10	13.3	13.1	0.15	14.1	15.9	-1.82
Bojan Bogdanovic	67	66	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	13.1	13.1	-0.01	16.3	14.1	2.18
Darren Collison	56	58	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-5	2	13.3	12.9	0.37	15.4	15.8	-0.40
Al Jefferson	33	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-3	-2	14.4	12.5	1.91	14.3	16.2	-1.92
Domantas Sabonis	68	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-5	2	12.5	14.4	-1.91	16.2	14.3	1.92
Thaddeus Young	62	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	1	-10	13.5	12.6	0.89	15.3	15.9	-0.64
Victor Oladipo	77	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	0	-8	13.1	13.2	-0.09	15.8	14.5	1.32
Lance Stephenson	51	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-1	-6	13.2	13.1	0.12	15.7	15.3	0.42
Cory Joseph	58	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.31	-8	0	-8	13.1	13.2	-0.08	14.9	16.3	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.46,0.32,0.36,0.1,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 94, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.09,0.02,0	92.1%
PHI 108, OKC 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.28,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.13,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.46,0.31,0.14,0.01,0.08,0	92.1%
PHX 102, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.03,0.09,0	91.8%