NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	7.0 [398]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIN): +18.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Comeback	1.1 [513]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -15.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	22	57%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	13	48%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Charlie Ward	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	11	44%	-0.03	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.16	0.01	-0.03	24	40%	-0.07	2	-0.05	14	64%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.07	0.03	14	77%	0.21	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	11	54%	0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	62%	0.07	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Oliver Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	29%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	4	20%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	27	47%	-0.04	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	29.4	15.8	26.4	2.7	41.5	141.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +1.0%

MIN -10.1%

SAS +29.1%

SAS +10.4%

SAS +19.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.4	15.0	15.7	102.2	101.1	100.5
season	15.9	15.6		100.1	103.2
opponent	16.1	15.8		98.4	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.1	16.2	19.9	15.0	16.4
MIN	14.9	14.4	16.1	15.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	76	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	16.2	17.4	-1.15	15.5	12.5	3.01
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-8	18	15.5	19.3	-3.80	14.8	15.8	-0.93
Manu Ginobili	56	55	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.39	2	0	2	16.4	16.5	-0.08	14.8	15.5	-0.71
Tim Duncan	76	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.43	0	2	-2	16.5	16.1	0.36	15.0	15.1	-0.09
Rasho Nesterovic	56	55	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	-3	8	16.1	17.0	-0.90	15.4	14.5	0.90
Bruce Bowen	60	60	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.46	-11	13	-24	17.0	15.3	1.66	15.1	15.0	0.07
Malik Rose	20	21	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	-2	6	16.2	16.5	-0.22	15.3	15.0	0.38
Robert Horry	26	26	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	2	-2	19.0	15.4	3.54	15.7	14.8	0.96
Charlie Ward	16	13	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	3	-4	17.4	16.2	1.15	12.5	15.5	-3.01
Kevin Willis	4	3	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	4	-6	12.2	16.6	-4.36	10.7	15.2	-4.53

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	3	4	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-4	6	10.7	15.2	-4.53	12.2	16.6	-4.36
Fred Hoiberg	13	14	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-2	2	12.8	15.4	-2.56	15.9	16.5	-0.58
Ervin Johnson	20	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	16.7	14.6	2.12	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Gary Trent	5	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	3	-8	20.0	14.8	5.24	15.7	16.5	-0.81
Michael Olowokandi	36	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-8	14	14.9	15.2	-0.30	20.0	14.3	5.67
Wally Szczerbiak	39	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.37	7	-9	16	15.0	15.1	-0.12	17.1	15.9	1.18
Sam Cassell	57	55	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-5	8	15.2	14.8	0.45	17.0	15.6	1.39
Trenton Hassell	61	64	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	3	-8	15.0	15.2	-0.18	15.6	18.4	-2.83
Kevin Garnett	79	81	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.44	6	-8	14	14.6	17.8	-3.21	16.5	15.8	0.69
Troy Hudson	34	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	2	-6	14.8	15.2	-0.45	15.6	17.0	-1.39
Latrell Sprewell	71	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	2	-6	15.2	14.3	0.89	16.5	16.2	0.28
Mark Madsen	37	36	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	10	-22	15.5	14.7	0.75	14.7	17.6	-2.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0,0	94.3%
MIA 98, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.03,0,0	93.9%
DAL 101, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.02,0.02,0,0	93.9%