NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	5.8 [674]		MVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): +9.2%
Sacramento Kings	87		Comeback	1.1 [526]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	7	79%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	7	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	22	54%	0.10	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	14	67%	0.08	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	9	60%	0.09	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	11	54%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	55%	0.05	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	15	48%	-0.01	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.04
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	15	53%	0.06	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	16	31%	-0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	24.2	15.6	25.4	2.8	32.3	126.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.4%

MIA +7.9%

MIA +5.6%

SAC -7.1%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.7	13.9	15.6	104.3	92.6	104.4
season	15.5	15.3		106.1	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	18.3	18.5	15.8	16.7
SAC	14.6	14.4	13.6	13.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	81	82	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.15	15	-4	19	17.0	15.2	1.83	13.8	14.7	-0.97
Udonis Haslem	64	64	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-5	21	17.1	15.9	1.23	13.5	14.7	-1.17
James Posey	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	0	11	16.9	16.3	0.61	13.9	14.0	-0.14
Alonzo Mourning	68	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	0	11	16.9	16.3	0.64	13.3	15.5	-2.26
Dwyane Wade	70	69	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	6	-1	16.5	17.3	-0.80	13.3	15.4	-2.09
Gary Payton	37	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	9	-7	16.6	16.8	-0.27	15.2	13.1	2.16
Antoine Walker	46	46	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	13	-15	16.2	17.2	-0.97	14.8	13.0	1.76
Shandon Anderson	27	28	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	11	-11	16.3	16.9	-0.61	14.0	13.9	0.14
Michael Doleac	10	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	14	-17	15.3	16.9	-1.60	16.4	13.6	2.79

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	29	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-8	5	14.9	13.5	1.39	15.4	17.4	-2.01
Bonzi Wells	72	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-10	9	13.9	13.8	0.17	17.6	14.1	3.45
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	65	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-3	-5	14.4	12.8	1.61	16.9	16.4	0.57
Jason Hart	23	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-2	-7	15.2	13.5	1.68	15.3	17.2	-1.95
Mike Bibby	77	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-8	5	13.2	16.9	-3.71	17.1	14.9	2.17
Kenny Thomas	43	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-7	3	13.9	13.9	-0.08	16.2	17.3	-1.11
Brad Miller	80	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	-1	-9	13.5	16.1	-2.55	16.9	15.7	1.20
Peja Stojakovic	81	80	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	-0.07	-17	6	-23	13.8	14.5	-0.74	16.6	17.7	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0,0	94.4%
UTA 115, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.05,0	94.2%
ATL 93, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.03,0,0,0	94.1%