NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	5.9 [642]		MVP	John Jenkins (ATL): +9.5%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.0 [1024]		LVP	Henry Walker (MIA): -19.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Jenkins	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	92%	0.13	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Muscala	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	38%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.09	0.07	-0.04	14	47%	0.12	5	-0.10	6	83%	0.03
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	15	63%	0.09	4	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Elton Brand	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	9	37%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	10	68%	0.08	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Shelvin Mack	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	7	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.02	0.04	8	78%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	13	52%	0.04	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	0.04	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	0.07	17	58%	0.01	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	12	37%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	0.00	0.02	7	50%	0.02	8	-0.19	2	100%	0.02
Henry Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	16	29%	-0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	29.4	15.4	26.8	2.0	40.8	139.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +43.0%

MIA -10.0%

MIA -6.5%

ATL +18.3%

ATL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	15.4	15.1	94.9	92.9	104.2
season	14.9	16.0		106.7	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.4	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.7	12.0	14.3	14.2	14.0
MIA	16.4	16.2	15.1	14.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	59	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-10	22	14.5	13.3	1.24	15.5	15.3	0.22
Paul Millsap	77	77	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.46	-2	4	-6	14.3	12.9	1.39	15.6	14.7	0.86
Kyle Korver	74	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	1	0	14.1	13.7	0.39	14.6	17.9	-3.35
Kent Bazemore	73	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.50	-7	9	-16	14.1	13.6	0.54	15.2	16.1	-0.93
Dennis Schroder	72	71	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	7	-12	14.3	13.1	1.20	15.5	15.1	0.33
John Jenkins	44	44	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-6	14	13.3	14.6	-1.32	16.5	14.4	2.10
Shelvin Mack	26	27	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.01	7	-5	12	13.1	14.3	-1.20	15.1	15.5	-0.33
Mike Scott	33	34	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.12	2	0	2	12.2	14.9	-2.65	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Mike Muscala	32	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.16	-6	8	-14	14.7	13.7	0.97	16.0	15.1	0.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	32	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	1	-4	14.4	15.9	-1.50	12.5	14.6	-2.11
Michael Beasley	52	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-2	2	14.6	16.3	-1.77	14.4	13.5	0.86
Dwyane Wade	62	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-6	10	15.3	15.5	-0.13	14.3	13.4	0.90
Hassan Whiteside	65	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	0	-2	16.0	14.1	1.91	15.0	11.9	3.06
Luol Deng	79	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-5	8	15.6	14.5	1.13	14.4	12.4	1.97
Henry Walker	56	55	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	2	-6	15.7	14.9	0.80	12.8	15.5	-2.65
Mario Chalmers	71	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-2	2	15.4	15.4	-0.03	13.6	15.0	-1.40
Goran Dragic	73	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	6	-14	15.4	15.4	0.04	14.0	14.1	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.29,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.4%
MIA 98, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.03,0,0	94.1%
ORL 96, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.33,0.37,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%