NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	5.2 [749]		MVP	Nick Anderson (ORL): +21.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Comeback	1.1 [390]		LVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): -19.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0.21	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.09	-0.02	19	62%	0.23	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.00
Derek Harper	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.03	-0.05	8	74%	0.14	1	-0.00	3	33%	0.01
Horace Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.05	0.05	-0.07	10	58%	0.12	4	-0.06	4	50%	0.02
Derek Strong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	6	72%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Mark Price	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	11	30%	-0.04	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Rony Seikaly	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	7	30%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.18	-0.04	-0.04	14	39%	-0.05	5	-0.14	8	50%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	-0.01	22	66%	0.29	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Roberts	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
DeJuan Wheat	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.02	0.08	12	72%	0.07	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	13	43%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Doug West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	9	11%	-0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.02	21	30%	-0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	25.0	14.8	24.1	2.5	38.6	129.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +32.1%

ORL +9.9%

ORL +12.8%

MIN -9.2%

ORL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	17.0	13.6	15.6	101.1	95.7	102.5
season	16.7	14.8		100.3	105.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		104.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	19.7	18.6	14.5	17.0
MIN	13.2	16.3	11.9	13.2	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	81	79	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.22	12	-5	17	16.3	21.4	-5.06	13.8	11.9	1.92
Derek Harper	52	51	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-2	11	16.3	18.0	-1.67	14.0	13.1	0.89
Bo Outlaw	87	85	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-3	13	17.4	12.9	4.55	14.0	9.1	4.85
Nick Anderson	84	82	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	4	-1	16.7	19.4	-2.63	13.0	17.7	-4.73
Rony Seikaly	56	55	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	2	3	18.1	15.5	2.64	13.3	13.9	-0.61
Derek Strong	53	52	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	10	-13	17.0	17.0	-0.01	13.4	13.8	-0.40
Mark Price	62	61	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	8	-9	17.5	16.1	1.46	13.4	13.9	-0.48

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jordan	21	21	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-13	19	12.8	13.8	-1.03	14.3	17.8	-3.54
DeJuan Wheat	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-11	15	6.7	13.9	-7.12	4.2	17.6	-13.35
Cherokee Parks	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-10	13	13.3	13.9	-0.54	18.6	15.1	3.53
Sam Mitchell	66	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-7	7	13.5	13.6	-0.10	18.3	14.1	4.21
Terry Porter	59	59	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.30	2	-9	11	13.7	13.3	0.42	17.6	16.1	1.59
Tom Hammonds	29	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	0	-7	13.5	13.6	-0.06	13.8	18.6	-4.76
Doug West	46	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	0	-7	13.8	13.4	0.40	17.5	16.6	0.84
Stanley Roberts	37	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	7	-21	14.9	12.6	2.30	16.1	17.7	-1.63
Kevin Garnett	79	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	1	-9	13.7	12.6	1.16	17.6	13.9	3.65
Stephon Marbury	70	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.08	-14	7	-21	13.2	14.6	-1.39	16.8	17.9	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.33,0.37,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 93, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.03,0,0,0	94.0%
PHX 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
SAS 98, SEA 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.37,0.27,0.14,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%