NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	100		Excitement	8.2 [250]		MVP	Trey Lyles (DEN): +25.7%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	4.1 [431]		LVP	Lonzo Ball (LAL): -21.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Hart	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.08	0.00	4	112%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.02	6	71%	0.18	2	-0.07	9	44%	-0.06
Kyle Kuzma	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.05	0.08	-0.02	13	46%	0.14	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jordan Clarkson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	12	50%	0.12	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	14	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.01	14	56%	0.12	5	-0.16	8	100%	0.07
Corey Brewer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	7	19%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lonzo Ball	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.11	0.00	10	45%	-0.06	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.14	0.03	9	82%	0.26	0	0.00	4	100%	0.11
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.10	0.01	20	58%	0.23	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.00	7	76%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	8	63%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.03
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.05	0.02	11	55%	0.19	5	-0.19	7	100%	0.05
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	22%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	15	41%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.4	29.4	22.7	24.3	2.3	31.6	139.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.5%

DEN +15.0%

LAL -27.2%

DEN +37.1%

DEN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	12.8	16.0	14.7	100.0	115.0	107.5
season	13.7	14.7		105.7	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.8		109.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	12.2	12.3	13.3	13.4	12.8
DEN	16.6	14.4	18.0	15.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	18	19	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.12	0	-15	15	13.7	12.6	1.09	17.1	15.8	1.33
Josh Hart	47	46	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.06	6	-21	27	13.4	12.2	1.16	16.1	16.0	0.11
Julius Randle	46	44	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.21	-5	-10	5	12.9	12.6	0.26	16.3	15.8	0.51
Brook Lopez	50	51	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-11	7	12.2	13.4	-1.22	16.2	15.8	0.38
Jordan Clarkson	62	61	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-18	21	12.4	13.3	-0.88	15.5	16.9	-1.42
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	46	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-2	-11	12.6	12.9	-0.38	16.7	15.5	1.19
Kyle Kuzma	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-8	1	12.9	12.6	0.32	15.8	16.3	-0.55
Lonzo Ball	69	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	0	-15	12.8	12.8	-0.01	15.9	16.3	-0.33
Larry Nance Jr.	48	50	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.18	-14	-1	-13	13.1	12.5	0.64	15.9	16.2	-0.34
Brandon Ingram	58	58	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.05	-26	11	-37	12.5	13.1	-0.60	15.8	16.3	-0.48

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	66	64	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.10	26	-11	37	15.7	16.7	-0.98	12.7	12.9	-0.14
Gary Harris	72	72	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.15	20	-5	25	15.6	17.2	-1.64	13.1	12.0	1.07
Jamal Murray	67	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	1	13	16.2	15.8	0.41	13.0	12.3	0.67
Trey Lyles	61	62	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.09	12	3	9	15.2	17.3	-2.05	13.4	11.7	1.75
Will Barton	60	60	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	15	-15	15.7	16.5	-0.87	12.3	13.5	-1.17
Juan Hernangomez	47	48	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.21	13	2	11	17.0	15.2	1.87	13.3	12.2	1.08
Emmanuel Mudiay	33	32	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	14	-13	15.8	16.2	-0.41	12.3	13.0	-0.67
Kenneth Faried	56	56	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	15	-15	16.9	14.9	2.04	12.2	13.4	-1.18
Darrell Arthur	10	10	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	21	-27	15.5	16.1	-0.59	12.0	12.9	-0.86
Richard Jefferson	28	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.09	-5	20	-25	17.2	15.6	1.64	12.0	13.1	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.61,0.72,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 73, IND 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.92,1	91.3%
DAL 85, SAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.4,0.55,0.72,0.91,0.99,1	91.2%
PHX 95, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.29,0.28,0.45,0.55,0.94,0.98,1	90.8%