NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	85		Excitement	6.8 [478]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +18.6%
San Antonio Spurs	90		Comeback	10.2 [268]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -24.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	73%	0.12	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.03
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02	16	59%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	11	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	39%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.12	-0.03	14	34%	-0.12	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.08	-0.16	0.01	14	34%	-0.23	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.01	20	60%	0.22	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	16	60%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	6	50%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	65%	0.14	4	-0.13	6	100%	0.03
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.03	4	25%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	8	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.6	30.1	19.4	26.6	4.3	33.3	141.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.0%

SAS +10.8%

SAS +13.0%

DAL -5.7%

DAL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	15.9	15.1	94.4	97.8	105.2
season	15.3	15.0		109.0	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.0		101.1	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.5	15.7	17.9	15.0	15.7
SAS	16.1	17.0	16.4	14.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	24	22	0.58	-1.08	1.66	0.11	16	-21	37	14.7	16.1	-1.45	16.1	15.9	0.23
DeJuan Blair	7	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-4	3	16.4	15.7	0.75	14.9	16.0	-1.14
Jose Calderon	30	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.13	-7	2	-9	15.9	15.7	0.20	17.4	15.2	2.26
Samuel Dalembert	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.15	-11	6	-17	16.3	15.4	0.95	16.5	15.6	0.95
Vince Carter	57	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.55	9	-14	23	15.5	16.2	-0.66	15.6	16.5	-0.95
Brandan Wright	51	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.50	7	-12	19	15.3	16.4	-1.10	15.7	16.2	-0.51
Shawn Marion	48	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	9	-23	16.2	15.2	0.93	16.1	15.7	0.36
Dirk Nowitzki	75	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-2	-1	15.6	16.2	-0.56	15.9	16.1	-0.26
Devin Harris	60	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.48	2	-7	9	15.7	15.9	-0.20	15.2	17.4	-2.26
Monta Ellis	66	69	-1.08	0.58	-1.67	-0.41	-23	18	-41	16.1	14.7	1.45	16.1	15.4	0.64

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	60	59	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.28	23	-18	41	15.5	16.7	-1.24	15.8	15.6	0.23
Tim Duncan	70	70	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.20	24	-19	43	16.1	15.2	0.90	15.9	15.0	0.94
Tony Parker	64	63	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.27	20	-15	35	16.0	15.7	0.29	16.0	15.2	0.73
Tiago Splitter	61	59	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-3	11	15.8	16.1	-0.23	15.6	16.0	-0.46
Manu Ginobili	60	59	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.42	1	4	-3	15.2	17.2	-1.91	15.9	15.4	0.48
Marco Belinelli	24	23	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.20	-6	11	-17	14.5	16.4	-1.86	15.8	15.7	0.07
Matt Bonner	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	5	-5	22.5	15.6	6.89	13.4	15.9	-2.47
Jeff Ayres	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	7	-9	0.0	16.1	-16.09	4.0	15.9	-11.87
Danny Green	45	43	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.09	-6	11	-17	17.4	14.4	3.00	15.9	15.6	0.24
Patty Mills	28	27	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.08	-15	20	-35	15.7	16.0	-0.29	15.2	16.0	-0.73
Boris Diaw	43	41	-0.64	1.14	-1.79	0.00	-22	27	-49	16.1	15.7	0.38	15.7	15.8	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.4,0.55,0.72,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.17,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.72,0.9,0.97,1	91.2%
LAL 100, DEN 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.61,0.72,0.99,1,1	91.2%
BOS 84, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.9,0.91,0.91,1	91.1%