NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	77		Excitement	4.2 [990]		MVP	Jonas Jerebko (UTA): +10.4%
Utah Jazz	106		Comeback	1.7 [708]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -10.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.03	-0.04	16	53%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Juan Hernangomez	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.05	9	39%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Trey Lyles	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	13	38%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.01	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.01	0.01	10	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.15	0.02	0.07	16	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	79%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	10	61%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.04	12	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Nate Wolters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	7	36%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raul Neto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.7	27.1	14.3	29.1	2.7	25.3	126.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +28.1%

UTA +0.9%

DEN -0.2%

UTA +20.6%

UTA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	16.6	14.7	84.6	114.0	107.5
season	14.7	15.1		111.2	106.6
opponent	14.6	14.7		103.3	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	15.0	13.8	14.2	14.7
UTA	15.4	16.3	15.6	19.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-24	19	13.5	14.8	-1.31	20.7	16.0	4.73
Kenneth Faried	43	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.15	-7	-22	15	14.5	14.8	-0.30	17.1	16.1	1.05
Malik Beasley	19	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	-22	15	14.4	14.7	-0.38	18.4	16.0	2.35
Mason Plumlee	31	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-25	21	14.5	14.8	-0.28	15.6	17.1	-1.52
Emmanuel Mudiay	37	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	-21	13	14.5	14.8	-0.31	15.9	17.0	-1.03
Jamal Murray	54	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.35	-21	-8	-13	14.8	14.5	0.31	17.0	15.9	1.03
Juan Hernangomez	53	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-17	5	14.4	15.1	-0.70	17.3	15.6	1.71
Trey Lyles	35	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.22	-17	-12	-5	14.9	14.5	0.44	15.6	17.2	-1.64
Nikola Jokic	50	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.24	-20	-9	-11	15.0	14.2	0.78	16.3	16.9	-0.58
Will Barton	59	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.23	-21	-8	-13	15.0	14.1	0.94	16.1	17.5	-1.39
Gary Harris	64	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.24	-23	-6	-17	14.7	14.7	-0.05	16.0	17.8	-1.79

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Favors	64	61	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.33	30	-1	31	16.6	16.4	0.21	15.3	13.4	1.85
Joe Ingles	58	55	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	20	-11	16.8	16.2	0.58	14.8	14.4	0.42
Jonas Jerebko	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.23	19	10	9	16.3	16.9	-0.66	14.4	15.0	-0.61
Donovan Mitchell	58	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.29	20	9	11	16.6	16.4	0.21	14.6	14.9	-0.30
Raul Neto	31	30	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	18	-7	15.1	17.3	-2.15	15.3	14.3	0.99
Royce O'Neale	40	39	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.43	23	6	17	17.0	16.2	0.86	14.4	14.9	-0.54
Ricky Rubio	57	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.18	14	15	-1	17.0	15.9	1.09	14.5	14.9	-0.40
Thabo Sefolosha	29	27	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	24	-19	15.6	17.0	-1.36	16.1	14.0	2.10
Alec Burks	39	37	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	24	-19	16.4	16.7	-0.26	14.2	15.0	-0.72
Nate Wolters	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	24	-19	20.5	16.4	4.12	14.0	14.7	-0.70
Tony Bradley	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	24	-19	20.5	16.4	4.12	11.3	14.8	-3.45
Ekpe Udoh	29	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	30	-31	16.4	16.6	-0.21	13.4	15.3	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.96,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ORL 90, DET 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
UTA 80, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%