NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	4.5 [912]		MVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): +11.0%
Atlanta Hawks	112		Comeback	1.7 [867]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -23.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	10	74%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	16	64%	0.09	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	9	52%	0.00	4	-0.07	7	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	12	52%	-0.03	4	-0.09	9	78%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	20	31%	-0.12	6	-0.11	2	100%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	15	67%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.04	-0.02	13	77%	0.19	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	58%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Travis Hansen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	20	48%	0.01	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	39%	-0.05	2	-0.06	6	17%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.6	35.1	14.8	25.0	2.5	31.5	135.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +44.8%

DEN -15.2%

ATL +12.2%

ATL +6.4%

ATL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	13.4	15.2	15.7	97.0	110.9	100.5
season	14.9	15.3		101.6	98.2
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	12.1	13.9	13.0	13.4
ATL	13.7	14.0	16.1	17.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	17	16	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.11	6	-20	26	12.2	13.6	-1.42	16.6	14.9	1.74
Earl Boykins	47	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-10	6	12.8	13.8	-1.02	15.5	14.9	0.58
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	10	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-4	-6	15.5	13.1	2.38	9.8	15.8	-5.99
Voshon Lenard	82	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-13	12	13.2	14.0	-0.79	15.3	14.5	0.78
Jon Barry	39	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	-3	-8	12.6	13.8	-1.17	13.7	16.1	-2.35
Nene	78	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-14	14	13.1	14.2	-1.11	15.6	13.7	1.84
Andre Miller	78	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.02	-15	1	-16	13.6	12.5	1.14	15.3	14.6	0.70
Marcus Camby	74	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.05	-14	0	-14	13.5	12.9	0.69	15.6	14.0	1.63
Carmelo Anthony	80	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.05	-21	7	-28	14.0	11.0	3.04	15.0	15.8	-0.80

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	82	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	0	14	15.2	15.0	0.20	13.7	11.9	1.79
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	72	71	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.03	13	1	12	15.3	14.8	0.56	14.0	11.8	2.26
Theo Ratliff	47	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	8	-2	15.0	15.3	-0.34	14.1	12.8	1.30
Jason Terry	81	78	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	9	-4	15.3	14.4	0.88	13.4	13.0	0.41
Jacque Vaughn	66	67	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	3	8	15.2	15.2	-0.02	12.6	14.9	-2.39
Travis Hansen	41	43	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	4	6	15.4	15.0	0.43	14.3	12.7	1.57
Nazr Mohammed	54	54	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	6	2	15.3	15.0	0.34	13.0	13.8	-0.85
Dion Glover	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	10	-6	14.5	15.5	-1.03	12.4	13.9	-1.50
Lee Nailon	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	16	-18	15.2	15.1	0.11	11.6	13.9	-2.28
Dan Dickau	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	13	-12	6.5	15.3	-8.83	13.5	13.4	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 94, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
DEN 77, UTA 106	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.96,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
POR 93, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,0.98,0.97,1	95.4%