NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	102		Excitement	7.2 [420]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +15.2%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	4.9 [240]		LVP	James Johnson (MIA): -21.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.01	0.10	-0.01	19	50%	0.16	2	-0.06	14	93%	0.09
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	0.00	5	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
John Wall	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	21	54%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	12	60%	0.12	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Tim Frazier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	6	14%	-0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.11	0.01	17	62%	0.24	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	11	58%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.11
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	58%	0.06	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	18	50%	0.04	5	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.04	-0.13	0.04	5	38%	-0.07	2	-0.14	3	67%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.8	26.2	14.8	24.2	2.5	39.2	130.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +3.5%

WAS +17.2%

WAS +4.7%

WAS +22.1%

WAS +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.0	14.7	113.3	104.5	107.5
season	14.8	15.1		108.2	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		105.8	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.3	17.1	16.4	16.8	16.1
MIA	18.5	15.6	16.4	13.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	70	71	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.23	18	-9	27	16.0	16.5	-0.46	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Bradley Beal	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	1	7	16.3	15.4	0.98	15.9	16.7	-0.80
Kelly Oubre Jr.	57	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-1	11	16.0	16.3	-0.30	16.3	15.5	0.78
Markieff Morris	41	42	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	-1	11	16.2	16.1	0.09	15.6	16.4	-0.79
Jodie Meeks	29	29	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	6	-3	16.7	15.9	0.75	17.2	15.5	1.74
Otto Porter Jr.	76	74	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	2	5	15.5	19.5	-3.97	15.9	16.9	-1.00
Marcin Gortat	50	50	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	8	-7	16.8	15.3	1.52	15.3	17.0	-1.77
Ian Mahinmi	33	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.10	-3	12	-15	16.0	16.2	-0.18	17.2	15.4	1.73
Tim Frazier	21	19	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.01	-9	18	-27	16.1	16.1	-0.00	16.4	15.9	0.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	14	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-10	11	17.5	15.8	1.74	16.5	16.1	0.46
Kelly Olynyk	21	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-9	9	16.7	15.8	0.83	16.4	16.1	0.37
Hassan Whiteside	63	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-8	7	16.0	16.2	-0.22	16.3	15.7	0.58
Goran Dragic	71	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-2	-5	15.7	17.5	-1.84	16.6	14.5	2.05
Justise Winslow	40	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	3	-15	16.1	16.0	0.07	16.1	16.2	-0.06
Dion Waiters	66	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.45	5	-14	19	15.4	17.9	-2.48	16.3	15.8	0.48
Josh Richardson	62	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	5	-19	16.1	15.9	0.21	15.3	18.2	-2.90
James Johnson	50	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.23	-7	-2	-5	16.4	15.6	0.74	16.0	16.3	-0.35
Tyler Johnson	58	58	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.31	-10	1	-11	16.3	15.5	0.84	16.2	16.1	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.71,0.71,0.53,0.47,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 114, MEM 105	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	91.8%
SAS 88, GSW 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.8%
DAL 109, NOP 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.21,0.09,0.05,0	91.8%