NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	114		Excitement	6.5 [501]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +23.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	105		Comeback	2.9 [632]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -16.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.09	-0.01	7	94%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.02	0.03	17	68%	0.17	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	58%	0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Tim Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	65%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.01	18	55%	0.04	3	-0.03	6	100%	0.01
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	1	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Sam Cassell	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.06	0.05	14	61%	-0.00	6	-0.16	5	100%	0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.04	0.03	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	61%	0.01	2	-0.04	18	72%	-0.06
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.07	-0.00	18	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	16	49%	-0.04	1	-0.01	7	43%	-0.05
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	23	41%	-0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.7	31.8	15.4	25.8	2.6	31.6	134.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +56.7%

MEM -4.3%

MIL +2.2%

MEM -8.5%

MIL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MEM	NBA	MIL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.8	16.3	15.6	122.6	114.1	102.3
season	15.3	15.7		104.7	96.0
opponent	15.2	16.0		103.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.2	17.2	15.0	14.3	14.8
MEM	15.1	14.8	16.3	19.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	81	81	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-4	17	14.2	19.4	-5.24	16.0	18.6	-2.66
Ervin Johnson	28	28	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.11	15	-6	21	17.1	13.9	3.28	19.9	14.7	5.12
Michael Redd	30	31	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	2	5	17.1	13.8	3.37	18.6	15.1	3.50
Tim Thomas	39	39	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	1	7	16.2	13.9	2.38	15.7	16.7	-1.00
Sam Cassell	72	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-3	15	14.2	17.1	-2.90	16.1	17.0	-0.90
Ray Allen	83	80	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	4	1	14.7	16.1	-1.40	15.7	20.5	-4.84
Darvin Ham	16	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	13	-17	14.4	14.9	-0.57	14.5	16.7	-2.16
Glenn Robinson	79	76	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	9	-9	14.6	16.1	-1.52	16.2	16.9	-0.78
Mark Pope	1	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	15	-21	6.0	14.9	-8.95	9.0	16.4	-7.37
Joel Przybilla	36	35	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.00	-5	14	-19	13.8	15.5	-1.70	16.0	16.5	-0.52

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-5	1	18.5	15.7	2.88	17.4	14.1	3.33
Tony Massenburg	18	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-6	3	18.0	15.9	2.12	17.5	14.2	3.28
Will Solomon	23	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-9	9	13.0	17.4	-4.39	14.5	15.0	-0.41
Grant Long	68	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-1	-7	16.9	14.5	2.43	14.5	15.9	-1.41
Rodney Buford	16	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-2	-5	17.0	16.1	0.86	18.4	14.1	4.26
Shane Battier	85	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-5	1	16.4	14.4	2.02	14.5	19.0	-4.54
Pau Gasol	77	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-2	-5	16.8	13.5	3.38	14.9	14.5	0.38
Jason Williams	73	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-4	-1	15.5	19.5	-4.07	13.9	18.2	-4.33
Stromile Swift	80	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-2	-5	15.7	20.3	-4.65	14.5	17.2	-2.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.11,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 109, NOP 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.21,0.09,0.05,0	93.7%
DAL 114, GSW 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.41,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.18,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.1,0	92.6%
WAS 97, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.01,0	92.5%