NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	114		Excitement	7.2 [407]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +24.6%
Golden State Warriors	107		Comeback	2.0 [376]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -14.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.11	0.12	-0.03	18	67%	0.29	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	17	67%	0.09	3	-0.09	18	83%	0.02
Shawn Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.05	-0.03	10	68%	0.09	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.06	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	14	43%	-0.04	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	18	67%	0.15	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.05
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.01	13	69%	0.17	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Zarko Cabarkapa	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	11	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.10	0.02	19	52%	-0.06	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.0	26.6	15.8	26.3	0.8	38.0	132.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +36.1%

DAL +6.0%

DAL +20.0%

GSW -13.1%

DAL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	13.9	15.5	109.6	102.9	104.0
season	14.9	15.0		108.2	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.7	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.3	12.7	15.6	14.6	13.8
GSW	14.9	14.5	12.1	14.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	44	45	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	1	5	15.2	12.7	2.48	14.2	13.8	0.38
Devin Harris	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	0	7	13.5	14.3	-0.81	14.7	12.6	2.05
Michael Finley	96	96	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	4	-1	14.0	10.2	3.79	14.0	13.4	0.61
Jason Terry	59	59	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.12	17	-10	27	11.8	16.2	-4.40	13.5	14.6	-1.12
Dirk Nowitzki	80	81	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	6	-5	14.9	9.9	4.98	13.6	15.2	-1.58
Josh Howard	90	90	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	6	-5	13.5	15.4	-1.86	14.0	13.4	0.59
Calvin Booth	12	10	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	4	-1	10.3	14.2	-3.86	14.6	13.9	0.73
Erick Dampier	41	42	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	1	5	14.4	13.3	1.06	13.8	14.0	-0.22
Alan Henderson	15	15	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	6	-5	13.0	13.9	-0.88	14.1	13.9	0.22
Shawn Bradley	16	15	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.02	-10	17	-27	13.6	13.8	-0.22	12.8	14.1	-1.33

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	8	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-9	11	14.6	13.9	0.74	10.0	14.1	-4.11
Mickael Pietrus	52	52	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-9	11	13.4	14.5	-1.08	12.8	14.7	-1.81
Adonal Foyle	54	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-8	9	13.7	14.2	-0.57	13.4	14.1	-0.62
Zarko Cabarkapa	10	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-6	5	12.5	14.1	-1.60	16.1	13.5	2.58
Dale Davis	36	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-2	-3	14.6	13.6	0.94	13.6	13.8	-0.26
Speedy Claxton	77	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-5	3	13.9	14.1	-0.28	14.1	12.9	1.12
Mike Dunleavy	68	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-3	-1	13.9	13.9	-0.00	14.0	13.3	0.70
Eduardo Najera	42	42	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.14	-9	2	-11	15.1	13.2	1.89	12.8	14.4	-1.66
Jason Richardson	88	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	1	-9	13.8	14.6	-0.73	14.3	11.3	2.99
Derek Fisher	85	86	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.36	-11	4	-15	13.9	14.1	-0.13	14.2	11.6	2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.41,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.18,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 114, MEM 105	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	92.6%
MIL 91, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.1%
CHI 116, PHX 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	91.7%