NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	9.7 [87]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +26.5%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	7.6 [231]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -19.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19	0.12	-0.00	-0.07	15	68%	0.23	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.10
James Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.00	6	107%	0.22	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.06	0.13	0.00	8	44%	0.16	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	73%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Wayne Ellington	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09	0.02	-0.12	-0.00	12	62%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	9	65%	0.09	3	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	8	12%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.1,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.24	0.02	17	59%	0.38	4	-0.12	12	67%	-0.16
Gary Harris	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.14	-0.00	7	71%	0.23	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.09	-0.01	9	55%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.09	-0.09	0.03	15	61%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	10	37%	-0.13	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.7	26.6	14.7	28.2	2.3	37.0	133.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -31.6%

DEN +28.4%

DEN +18.3%

DEN +33.2%

DEN +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	15.0	14.7	97.9	100.0	107.5
season	15.1	14.7		105.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.6		109.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	14.7	16.6	13.2	15.1
DEN	16.0	14.7	12.8	17.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	7	8	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.01	6	-7	13	16.1	15.0	1.11	12.1	15.3	-3.19
Hassan Whiteside	46	42	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.15	-1	0	-1	15.5	14.7	0.78	17.3	13.2	4.06
James Johnson	61	61	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-5	9	14.3	16.5	-2.25	14.8	15.5	-0.76
Okaro White	23	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.02	-1	0	-1	17.3	14.4	2.88	16.9	14.5	2.41
Wayne Ellington	27	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	1	-3	15.3	15.1	0.20	12.5	16.1	-3.55
Kelly Olynyk	43	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	2	-5	14.5	15.6	-1.09	13.5	16.4	-2.91
Justise Winslow	29	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	4	-9	14.2	15.5	-1.35	14.5	15.3	-0.77
Josh Richardson	63	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.50	8	-9	17	14.5	16.3	-1.76	16.3	12.4	3.91
Dion Waiters	61	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.36	-1	0	-1	15.7	14.2	1.48	15.5	14.2	1.28
Goran Dragic	67	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.45	1	-2	3	15.7	13.7	2.09	15.2	14.7	0.45
Tyler Johnson	53	52	-1.12	0.62	-1.75	-0.80	-11	10	-21	14.8	15.4	-0.59	13.9	16.5	-2.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	57	59	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.72	10	-9	19	14.0	16.6	-2.65	14.3	16.5	-2.23
Wilson Chandler	70	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.53	-3	4	-7	15.1	14.8	0.33	15.2	14.9	0.32
Mason Plumlee	25	24	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.39	0	1	-1	12.0	16.1	-4.13	14.8	15.2	-0.38
Gary Harris	69	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.34	1	0	1	15.0	15.0	0.01	15.7	13.6	2.10
Emmanuel Mudiay	53	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	-2	5	14.6	15.6	-0.95	14.8	15.5	-0.63
Paul Millsap	65	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	3	-5	15.2	14.7	0.45	15.7	13.8	1.86
Malik Beasley	20	19	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	-4	9	16.0	14.8	1.21	14.0	15.4	-1.39
Kenneth Faried	12	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	-1	3	17.5	14.7	2.81	12.9	15.4	-2.49
Jamal Murray	39	39	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.02	-5	6	-11	15.3	14.9	0.45	16.1	14.4	1.71
Nikola Jokic	65	67	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.22	-6	7	-13	16.3	12.2	4.11	15.0	15.3	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.9,0.79,0.33,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.4,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.64,0.55,0.73,1	90.9%
MIA 77, ATL 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.72,0.55,0.72,1	90.5%
LAC 94, VAN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.53,1	90.4%