NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	7.8 [282]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +14.7%
Atlanta Hawks	82		Comeback	2.7 [177]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -25.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.18,0.15	0.01	0.13	-0.01	6	75%	0.21	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harold Jamison	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	13	60%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,0.01,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	19	48%	0.03	2	-0.17	4	100%	0.04
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	12	33%	-0.08	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25	-0.16	-0.08	0.01	18	32%	-0.16	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,0,0.09	0.09	-0.06	0.15	0.00	15	44%	0.15	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	19	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Roshown McLeod	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	15	41%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	6	31%	-0.07	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	14	37%	-0.12	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	29.5	15.6	27.2	2.5	32.4	131.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +4.4%

ATL +3.8%

ATL +6.1%

ATL +32.0%

ATL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.7	15.2	85.6	92.1	101.7
season	15.7	15.4		101.2	99.3
opponent	15.2	15.9		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	15.7	17.7	17.9	16.4
ATL	16.7	16.3	12.3	18.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	71	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-8	11	15.5	20.1	-4.57	15.3	17.3	-1.94
Anthony Carter	20	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-4	3	19.0	15.7	3.29	17.4	15.2	2.15
Harold Jamison	32	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	3	-11	18.0	15.6	2.37	13.5	17.0	-3.43
Mark Strickland	14	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	2	-9	19.2	15.9	3.28	17.9	15.4	2.57
Alonzo Mourning	62	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.29	2	-7	9	15.7	18.1	-2.36	16.8	13.2	3.60
Tim Hardaway	71	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-3	1	15.8	18.9	-3.11	15.2	17.4	-2.15
Clar. Weatherspoon	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	3	-11	16.5	16.1	0.41	15.4	16.9	-1.54
Bruce Bowen	31	29	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-3	1	17.8	15.7	2.13	16.7	15.2	1.47
Jamal Mashburn	81	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-3	1	16.1	19.6	-3.46	15.7	16.0	-0.30

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	32	33	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	-1	7	18.4	14.2	4.18	18.8	15.1	3.70
Jim Jackson	53	53	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	-2	9	15.2	16.5	-1.29	16.4	16.5	-0.16
Jason Terry	75	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	15.6	16.4	-0.74	16.0	18.6	-2.60
Roshown McLeod	55	56	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	-1	7	14.5	17.7	-3.15	15.7	17.7	-2.03
Alan Henderson	57	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	0	5	15.4	16.2	-0.81	16.8	15.8	0.94
Dikembe Mutombo	67	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	5	-5	15.3	17.0	-1.75	15.5	18.9	-3.37
LaPhonso Ellis	22	23	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	5	-5	16.1	15.6	0.54	18.4	15.8	2.62
Dion Glover	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.16	-2	7	-9	17.1	14.7	2.40	16.5	16.4	0.03
Bimbo Coles	17	18	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	3	-1	13.8	16.2	-2.36	16.7	16.4	0.35
Chris Crawford	15	15	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	4	-3	16.7	15.5	1.21	18.5	16.0	2.43
Cal Bowdler	14	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	7	-9	17.1	15.5	1.59	13.5	17.0	-3.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.72,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.4,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.64,0.55,0.73,1	91.6%
TOR 93, BOS 100	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.57,0.68,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.78,0.78,0.84,1	90.8%
DAL 101, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.92,1	90.7%