NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	6.0 [646]		MVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): +27.0%
Orlando Magic	116		Comeback	1.8 [383]		LVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): -12.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.14	0.15	0.04	0.05	18	67%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	7	59%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.00	19	40%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	27%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	39%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	9	50%	0.04	4	-0.12	4	25%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	17	44%	-0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.16	0.00	17	64%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.07	0.02	12	59%	0.16	1	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	11	62%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	54%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	13	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	1.7	29.3	15.3	26.4	2.4	30.3	135.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +46.8%

MIA -1.6%

ORL +8.3%

MIA -4.4%

ORL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	14.1	13.2	14.7	102.8	110.5	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	104.2
opponent	14.5	14.6		109.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	16.1	15.4	12.2	14.1
ORL	12.1	13.9	12.3	14.5	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	12	12	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-10	13	16.7	13.8	2.85	13.2	13.1	0.11
James Johnson	41	42	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-13	19	11.3	15.9	-4.61	14.1	12.5	1.61
Wayne Ellington	20	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-2	-3	16.6	13.6	3.03	14.6	12.8	1.81
Tyler Johnson	45	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-8	9	12.9	15.0	-2.10	14.5	12.1	2.44
Justise Winslow	52	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	6	-19	14.6	13.7	0.85	12.7	13.5	-0.83
Josh Richardson	78	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-10	13	14.4	13.5	0.82	12.9	13.9	-0.94
Kelly Olynyk	47	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	3	-13	15.7	12.9	2.88	12.7	13.5	-0.89
Goran Dragic	70	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	2	-11	14.3	13.8	0.47	12.1	15.2	-3.15
Hassan Whiteside	80	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	-2	-3	14.0	14.7	-0.73	13.2	13.0	0.25
Dion Waiters	85	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.32	-6	-1	-5	13.9	15.1	-1.25	13.2	13.1	0.01

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	69	69	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.16	18	-11	29	12.3	14.8	-2.47	14.9	12.6	2.29
Aaron Gordon	78	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	-3	13	12.2	16.0	-3.83	13.8	15.1	-1.25
Elfrid Payton	71	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.17	9	-2	11	12.3	15.0	-2.78	14.4	13.6	0.77
Nikola Vucevic	70	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-4	15	12.4	14.7	-2.39	14.6	13.2	1.38
Evan Fournier	77	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	5	-3	12.7	14.3	-1.59	14.3	13.6	0.72
D.J. Augustin	34	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	9	-11	15.0	12.3	2.78	13.6	14.4	-0.77
Bismack Biyombo	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	9	-11	15.0	12.3	2.78	13.2	14.6	-1.38
Jonathan Isaac	35	36	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	8	-9	14.9	12.3	2.60	13.7	14.4	-0.68
Jonathon Simmons	57	57	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.23	-10	17	-27	14.9	11.1	3.81	13.6	14.7	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.68,0.77,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 70, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
DET 94, NYK 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%
NJN 72, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%